This year's Senate map is extremely favorable for Republicans, who currently are in the upper chamber minority, 51 seats to 49. The 2024 map offers a golden opportunity for the GOP to not only win back the majority in the fall, but to do so decisively -- perhaps padding their numbers ahead of more challenging maps in upcoming cycles. With the retirement of Joe Manchin in West Virginia, that deep red, pro-Trump state is almost guaranteed to elect a Republican to that vacant seat in November, which would put the balance of power at 50-50, assuming no current red seats flip to blue. On that front, the pickings are slim for Democrats, who can only play offense in Republican territory, while they're playing quite a bit of defense in red-to-purple states elsewhere. They will spend a fortune trying to unseat Ted Cruz in Texas, and may try to make something happen against Rick Scott in Florida -- but it really says something if those are the most "vulnerable" pick-up opportunities for Democrats.
On the other side of the ledger, in addition to the West Virginia quasi-slam dunk, Republicans have opportunities to gain current Democrat-held seats in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The GOP has nominated failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is not seeking re-election. Voters seem rather wary of Lake, who trails hard-left Democrat Ruben Gallego -- whose campaign will be dogged by his very 'progressive' ideology and his ugly personal baggage -- in early polling. Republicans will field a very impressive candidate in Montana, where Democrats are banking on an abortion referendum to help their turnout and save faux-moderate Sen. Jon Tester, who votes like Chuck Schumer with a flat top haircut. Democrats also are hopeful that Republicans have selected an overly-Trumpy nominee in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown's leftist-populist brand will face its toughest test to date. And depending on how certain campaigns are run, and how Trump performs at the top of the ticket, sensible challengers in other the rust belt states could be in the mix to pull relative upsets. In Nevada, unremarkable generic Democrat Jacky Rosen is facing a decorated wounded warrior in a state where Trump's polling has looked remarkably strong thus far.
Given the advantageous map, Republicans should have a real shot at picking up three or more seats this year, but as we've seen lately 'should' and 'will' are distinct concepts. And then there's Maryland. It's somewhat surreal to even be mentioning that deep blue state within the context of this analysis, but Republicans are going to nominate a highly popular, ideologically-moderate two-term governor in the race for a seat being vacated by a retiring Democrat. In 2014, a red wave year, Larry Hogan won the governorship in Maryland by roughly four points, defying the polls in the process. Four years later, in a Trump-era blue wave year, Hogan won re-election by more than 13 points, carrying 56 percent of the vote. It's still quite early in the 2024 process, but a recent Washington Post survey suggests that Hogan could again prove to be a formidable force:
📊 Maryland Senate Poll: WP/UMD
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 20, 2024
🟥 Hogan 49% (+12)
🟦 Trone 37%
.
🟥 Hogan 50% (+14)
🟦 Alsobrooks 36%
—
Dem Senate
Trone 34%
Alsobrooks 27%
Undecided 39%
—
Favs
Hogan 64-23 (+41)
Trone 33-21 (+12)
Alsobrooks 26-15 (+11)
—
D53/R24/I23 | 3-5/12 | RVs https://t.co/83Yh1DlLiq pic.twitter.com/dcxfW5inw7
The Democratic primary will resolve itself, and many Democratic voters will likely 'come home' to their party, even if they like or respect Hogan -- especially with Trump at the top of the ticket in a state that Trump lost by more than 30 points in 2020. There's virtually no way Hogan will maintain a double digit lead like this, but just look at those favorables (+41), hard-earned over eight years of governance. The eventual Democrat nominee will spend heavily, perhaps now with national help, to bring Hogan down to earth. But paint-by-numbers attacks against 'MAGA Republicans' or whatever simply won't be as effective as they'd like against Hogan, who isn't that guy. He's running a different sort of campaign, buoyed by an independent reputation formed and burnished over the better part of a decade. He's also leaning hard into supporting Israel, drawing a contrast with Maryland's Israel-hostile Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen.
Furthermore, Hogan's would-be Democratic opponents have not been impressive. David Trone, currently a Congressman, is a millionaire self-funder who looks like a stock photo of a rich white man. He's also battling a racial slur scandal right now, apologizing for using an offensive term during an on-camera budget hearing, of all settings:
🚨Maryland Democrat Senate frontrunner Rep. David Trone utters racial slur during House meeting:
— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) March 22, 2024
"Republican j****boo"
Trone was talking about tax policy with OMB Director Shalanda Young, who is a black woman.
Trone later apologized, explaining that he meant to say “bugaboo." pic.twitter.com/kdrR33V8In
A group of five Black House Democrats has endorsed Angela Alsobrooks’ candidacy for U.S. Senate in Maryland days after her main opponent, Rep. David Trone, used a racial slur in a congressional hearing.https://t.co/YoPpN73VKb
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) March 25, 2024
He's groveling:
During a recent House budget hearing, Maryland Democratic congressman David Trone used a racial slur that he has since issued an apology for.
— WBAL NewsRadio 1090 and FM 101.5 (@wbalradio) March 25, 2024
Read the full apology and listen to what was said here: https://t.co/5t7DGifnOD pic.twitter.com/imCvK5ToAu
Allies of Trone's opponent, a lesser-known black woman who has struggled to fundraise and break through, are making this an issue. Political analyst Josh Kraushaar told my radio audience this week that while Hogan may well still be the underdog because of the partisan bent of the state, something of a "perfect storm" is brewing that will likely force Democrats to invest substantial resources in a place that they expected to win in a layup -- and could realistically be winnable for Hogan. I'll leave you with a sense of how Hogan is positioning himself in this race. 'You know me:'
I am running for the United States Senate – not to serve one party – but to stand up to both parties, fight for Maryland, and fix our nation's broken politics. It’s what I did as Maryland’s governor, and it’s exactly how I'll serve Maryland in the Senate. Let’s get back to work. pic.twitter.com/d0TuZchAtN
— Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) February 9, 2024
Moments after we filed our candidacy, the exact same inflammatory rhetoric and false attacks started up once again, just like they did in 2014 and 2018. Marylanders aren’t going to fall for it. pic.twitter.com/EP27wZpDwY
— Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) February 16, 2024
Hardcore Republicans may bristle at Hogan's centrism and Trump criticisms, but he's the best electable option they'll ever have for a Senator from Maryland. Will conservatives consolidate -- and will enough independents and Democrats be willing to send a governor they generally liked to Washington with a light-red (R) next to his name? Stay tuned.
