On my radio program yesterday, prominent political and elections analyst Josh Kraushaar reviewed the 2024 polling lay of the land and reached an inescapable conclusion: "Trump is ahead." It's still early spring, so there's a lot of distance between now and the November election -- so while former President Donald Trump's general election lead has persisted for many weeks on end at this point, any number of events or factors could alter the landscape over the next seven months. Trump's trials could erode his support, and the economy could improve appreciably, improving President Biden's re-election prospects. High gas prices this summer could sour public sentiment further, or some major Biden mental or physical mishap could occur, raising the likelihood that Trump is swept back into office by voters.
What is clear at this moment, per Kraushaar's blunt assessment is that the advantage currently resides with the challenger. Leah spotlighted these new battleground state polling results from the Wall Street Journal yesterday, which further underscore that reality:
New WSJ swing state poll has Trump comfortably ahead in most swing states
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) April 3, 2024
+5 in AZ
+3 in MI
+6 in NC
+4 in NV
+3 in PAhttps://t.co/2UgpZzjH0C pic.twitter.com/0wcseWb9LP
I wouldn't call any of those leads 'comfortable,' but being ahead in six out of seven states, and tied in the seventh, is certainly a lot better than the alternative. Kraushaar also referred to Wisconsin as the ultimate bellwether, predicting that the victor in Badgerland will win the presidency this year. Wisconsin Republicans have met with a frustrating record of mixed success, at best, in recent election cycles. Trump narrowly won it in 2016, the first Republican nominee to do so since Ronald Reagan (George W. Bush lost it by a fraction of a point in 2000 and 2004). Biden carried the state in 2020, by less than a point. A Democrat barely won the governorship in 2018, and was closely but more comfortably re-elected in 2022. Republican Senator Ron Johnson also survived a tough race that year. A major judicial election last year resulted in a Democratic landslide, but in this week's primary and general elections, some potentially ominous signs emerged for Team Blue:
Two GOP-backed ballot measures that effectively banned 'Zuck Bucks' in statewide elections were adopted by a majority of voters. Two medium-sized cities elected center-right mayors, including a flip of control in Wausau, where Democrats spent quite a lot of money on a municipal election. The Democratic governor, Tony Evers, won both of these cities two years ago. And on the Democratic side of the ledger, 'pro-Palestine' forces channeled their anti-Israel frustrations into a protest vote of more than 48,000 ballots against Biden in the party's primary (Biden carried Wisconsin by about 20,000 total votes in 2020). These are just the people who were pissed off enough to show up just to vote against the incumbent. Presumably, there are others who are disillusioned and unmotivated by Biden, who simply stayed home. Overall Republican turnout also slightly outpaced Democratic turnout in the state on Tuesday. The bellwether of bellwethers is very, very tight, and it's unclear if Democrats' recent successes will be be replicated this fall. Back to the WSJ survey, and a key finding that demonstrates why Trump leads in these crucial battlegrounds:
Biden’s average approval in swing states, per new WSJ poll: 38%
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) April 3, 2024
Trump’s retrospective approval in those same swing states: 51% pic.twitter.com/w0YA6Uyl5D
These voters generally think Biden has done a lousy job as president, while they think Trump's performance was better -- especially in retrospect. In terms of the national picture, new Fox numbers last week gave Trump a four-point cushion, but a Marist/NPR data set shows Biden slightly up:
🇺🇲 2024 National GE: NPR/Marist College
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 3, 2024
🟦 Biden 50% (+2)
🟥 Trump 48%
Suburban voters: Biden 57-41%
——
🟦 Biden 43% (+2)
🟥 Trump 41%
🟨 RFK Jr 11%
🟩 Stein 2%
🟨 West 1%
—
• 538: #6 (2.9/3.0) | 1,125 RV
• D38/R31/I31 | 3/25-28 | ±3.7%https://t.co/Iv0dx8A5nG pic.twitter.com/N6KO6S78Qv
Remember, Biden won the so-called 'popular vote' in 2020 by 4.5 points or so, and just squeaked out victories in a handful of decisive states. I suspect the Trump campaign would be very comfortable with a 2024 'popular vote' range of 'down two' to 'up four.' The Biden campaign and Democrats are comfortably winning the fundraising battle as of now, as is so often the case for the money-in-politics party, but this development will at least quell some of the GOP panic over getting utterly crushed in the money fight:
Former President Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee raised $65.6 million in March and ended the month with $93.1 million in cash on hand, according to figures provided to POLITICO. Trump’s allies hope the amount will ease concerns about his fundraising and the cash deficit he is facing against President Joe Biden. The figure — which covers a number of fundraising vehicles that will all have to disclose their activities to the Federal Election Commission later this month — outpaces the $62 million that Trump raised in March 2020, when he was running for reelection.
Some Democratic operatives are trying to calm Democratic fears about 2024, including one man who correctly predicted the midterms would be surprisingly successful for his party. The First Lady is shrugging off any possibility that her husband might lose. Which brings us back to a more impartial observer in Kraushaar, who certainly disagrees:
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