As Leah covered earlier on Wednesday, there's another round of polling out on key battleground states, this time from The Wall Street Journal, and they certainly don't look good for Biden's reelection campaign. We know that President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden have been hyperaware of polls and how they're not too kind. And that certainly still looks to be the case, given Jill Biden's reaction on "CBS Mornings."
The first lady was there to surprise the National Teacher of the Year, Missy Testerman, but she was also asked about how poorly Biden's been faring in the polls against former and potentially future President Donald Trump in a rematch from 2020.
When confronted about The Wall Street Journal poll, and others, "landing in the White House," Jill Biden insisted, "No, he's not losing in all the battleground states, he's coming up!" Co-host Tony Dokoupil clarified Biden is losing in "all but one," according to the poll, but was clearly taken aback by the first lady's strong reaction.
"And he's um, uh, even or doing better, so you know what? Once people start to focus in, and they see their two choices, it's obvious that Joe will win this election," she insisted.
Jill Biden, Ed.D., snaps at the suggestion Biden is losing in battleground states:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 3, 2024
“No, he’s not! … It’s obvious that Joe will win!” 😬 pic.twitter.com/Imrh8ALBw2
Jill Biden just snapped when told that Joe is losing in the battleground states.
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) April 3, 2024
“No he’s not!” she said.
Jill can’t face reality.
That’s why she continues to prop up Joe even though he’s clearly lost his faculties. pic.twitter.com/8YMxUFnaNI
The only state where Trump is not polling higher than Biden is Wisconsin, where they're tied at 46 percent support each among voters. Trump is up by +5 in Arizona (47-42 percent), +1 in Georgia (44-43 percent), +3 in Michigan (48-45 percent), +6 in North Carolina (49-43 percent), +4 in Nevada (48-44 percent), and by +3 in Pennsylvania (47-44 percent).
The survey of 4,200 voters (600 voters in each of the battleground states) was conducted March 17-24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the entire sample and 4 points for results from the individual states.
The Wall Street Journal write-up focused on how this really isn't great for Biden. "Incumbent trails in most battlegrounds that decided 2016 and 2020 elections," the subheadline warns. "Overall, the poll shows substantial unhappiness with Biden among voters who will have the most influence in the outcome of the election, as expanded one-party dominance in states has left just a few as politically competitive," the article also mentions.
Yet another issue is Biden's high disapproval ratings, as well as his mental fitness, and how he's losing support among key demographics like black, Hispanic, and young voters:
In every state in the survey, negative views of the president’s job performance outweigh positive views by 16 percentage points or more, with the gap topping 20 points in four states. By contrast, Trump earns an unfavorable job review for his time in the White House in only a single state—Arizona—where negative marks outweigh positive ones by 1 percentage point.
Both candidates carry a tarnished image into the race, but voters view Biden more unfavorably. Asked to choose which candidate has the better physical and mental fitness to handle the White House, 48% pick Trump and 28% say Biden. One result is that Biden is having a harder time holding together his 2020 coalition, with declining support among Black, Hispanic and young voters.
...
In another challenge for Biden, the survey found signs that he has yet to consolidate the winning coalition that backed him in 2020. Across the seven states, Biden is winning 68% of Black voters, as well as 48% of Hispanic voters and 50% of voters under age 30 on the two-candidate ballot.
In addition to the numbers just not being on her side, it's worth wondering what "focus" the first lady thinks is going to take place. Given that the election is still seven months away, something could surely happen. But the strategy for Democrats and Biden's reelection campaign so far looks to be focused on rehashing old lies and debunked talking points about Trump, gaslighting on immigration – where Trump has an edge in the polls – and making the campaign about abortion – where Biden has an edge and which is a top issue for fellow Democrats but not so much for voters overall.
This write-up mentions the issues as well:
For a president struggling to regain ground with voters, the poll offers several possibilities. Trump holds double-digit leads in every state when voters are asked who can best handle the economy, inflation and immigration, but Biden is viewed as the preferable candidate on abortion, an issue that some voters consider make-or-break in deciding their candidate choice. The Biden campaign is expected to stress Trump’s role in nominating Supreme Court justices who ended federal abortion rights and opened the path to state-level restrictions.
...
Fabrizio, the Republican pollster, said a main finding of the poll was that battleground-state voters feel a pervasive sense of “economic malaise…like a wet blanket that sits over everything,” which has weighed down views of the president’s performance. Fabrizio, who worked for a pro-Trump super PAC at the time the survey was conducted, has since joined the Trump campaign.
Bocian said it was a problem for Biden that he isn’t getting credit for positive feelings about battleground-state economies. “Whether they can take advantage of that opportunity—not make people feel everything’s going great, but better than they’re currently feeling—I think is a big challenge in front of them,” he said.
Jill Biden's insistence brings to mind the same sense of hope when the Bloomberg/Morning Consult battleground states poll released last week showed some gains for Biden. But, those hopeful about the polls took it too far, especially when it comes to an opinion piece Nia-Malika Henderson wrote for Bloomberg, claiming, "Biden Is on a Roll in Key Swing States."
What was the cause for all that excitement? The polls showed Biden and Trump tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Biden was leading by +1 in Wisconsin.
As we covered at the time, which is a reminder worth repeating, Trump doesn't look to be in trouble with these battleground states, not yet at least. He also shouldn't get too cocky, though.
More important to the story is how frantic Jill Biden appears, whether she is willing to admit the president is not looking too good ahead of November or not. There are those Democrats, as we've also covered, like strategist James Carville, who do acknowledge that the situation doesn't look too good for Biden, and his warnings have been coming since even before the poll was released. Carville had focused his warnings about the "2020 coalition," particularly regarding non-white, young, male voters.
While the WSJ poll shows Trump and Biden tied in Wisconsin, RealClearPolling still shows Trump up by +0.6 in the state. He's also up overall by +5.2 in Arizona, +4.5 in Georgia, +3.4 in Michigan, +3.2 in Nevada, +4.6 in North Carolina, and +0.6 in Pennsylvania.
