Last week, we wrote about the unfavorable election outcomes for Republicans in two closely-watched races -- a federal special election in New York, and a state-level election in Pennsylvania. The New York race took place in a major swing district. Polls showed it close. It ended up not being too close, with the Democrats gaining a seat. In the Keystone state, the district, while blue, at least had the possibility of a somewhat competitive race. Democrats blew it out. Both contests featured two similar dynamics: First, Democrats hugely, dominantly ran up the score in early, mail voting, building effectively insurmountable leads. Second, less importantly, a snowstorm in the northeast on Election Day itself may have depressed turnout among Republicans -- who tend to insist on day-of voting. Part of this insistence has been reinforced by Donald Trump's attacks on mail-in voting.
Whatever one might think about mail-in balloting -- and there's no doubt in my mind that it was exploited in shady ways in 2020 -- impotently raging against existing rules is a ticket to losing elections. Democrats have figured out a way to "bank" their vote early and efficiently in many places, and Republicans can either adapt to reality, or get left behind. For instance, in California, Republicans started to embrace legalized ballot harvesting, rather than complaining about it. This has helped them win some very important, close House races. The party writ large seems to have come around to grasping the importance of exploiting rules as they exist, and on occasion, Trump has gone along with it. This was in June:
After years of deriding early and mail-in voting, claiming they lead to fraud and help Democrats to steal elections, top Republicans are changing their position, leading to a split in the party as the 2024 election approaches. The converts atop the party warn that they must adapt or risk further electoral setbacks, especially in key states where early and mail balloting are in place. However, the entrenched foes within Republicans’ election-denier ranks could muddle the party message on voting. The Republican National Committee recently announced that it had created a program to promote early voting, both by mail and in person. The effort, called Bank Your Vote, further calls for Republicans to take advantage of “ballot harvesting” where it is legal, a practice that allows a third party to collect voters’ completed ballots.
The reversal is a concession to math and the realities of the moment, as the popularity of mail-in voting shows few signs of receding, three years after the pandemic began and accelerated its use. It also is a grudging recognition that Republicans have failed to gain traction with their baseless claims that mail voting compromises election integrity...Even former President Donald J. Trump, whose lies and conspiracy theories about his 2020 election loss heightened the party’s distrust of mail voting, has been saying for months that Republicans have “no choice” but to embrace the method, at least until the party has the power to change voting laws.
But then he says things like this over the weekend, which reinforces doubts among the party faithful -- and thus, the Democrats' advantage:
Trump’s message to Republicans voters: Mail in voting is totally corrupt. Get that through your head. It has to be. The votes. I mean, it has to be pic.twitter.com/FYotJWzk3z
— Acyn (@Acyn) February 18, 2024
The mixed messaging is glaring:
"...anyway, be sure to sign up for the RNC's Bank Your Vote program and contribute to my ballot harvesting fund." https://t.co/ziUV6Rmfkf pic.twitter.com/kNWQrVDuko
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) February 18, 2024
The incoherence achieves nothing for Republicans. Democrats will keep doing what they're doing, while the GOP will only be slower in reacting accordingly. Trump is once again too fixated on his 2020 loss, struggling or refusing to adapt to realities that will either help him win in November, or contribute to another loss. And this sort of thing would seem less bizarre and frivolous if he was also being more disciplined and purposeful about supporting the methods and infrastructure required to win elections:
WATCH: Trump makes surprise appearance at Sneaker Con in Philadelphia, unveils official Sneaker that sells for $399 pic.twitter.com/YMzi2YIS9N
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 17, 2024
Yes, much of the polling looks promising for Trump right now, but turnout and execution will be the ballgame. One party is much more organized and serious about the latter facet right now.
