DES MOINES, IOWA -- On Sunday night, I was asked my prediction for the following evening's Iowa caucuses during the Big Weekend Show on Fox News. Put on the spot, I said that my best educated guess was that Donald Trump would, in fact, narrowly eclipse the 50 percent mark -- which no Republican had ever done in a contested caucus here. I also said that despite the wave of final Iowa polling showing Nikki Haley surging into second place, Ron DeSantis would grab that slot. Haley's momentum was real, I reasoned, but her support was softer and may not materialize in frigid temperatures -- whereas DeSantis was better organized in the state, and his supporters were generally more committed:
My Iowa prediction Sunday night: Trump hits 50%, wins by 30 points — and despite the wave of polling showing Haley surging into 2nd, DeSantis’ ground organization & committed voters propel him to a narrow finish ahead of her, overcoming her real momentum: pic.twitter.com/T5hEi4W2j5
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 16, 2024
Sometimes I get it wrong. In this case, as occasionally happens, I nailed it. Some general takeaways:
(1) Any way you slice it, it was a Trump blowout. The candidate, his team, and his supporters wanted to make history and hit 50 percent. They did it. He won a simple majority of caucus-goers, despite other serious and well-funded candidates in the race. Some people will say it's still a weak showing for a former president to barely eke out a majority, but that's spin. These are unprecedented dynamics, and Trump lapped the field. He entered the evening as the very heavy favorite to win the nomination. The likelihood of that outcome has now increased even further. He isn't yet the presumptive nominee, but he's pretty close. This is quite something (even if Haley may have won a single county by the thinnest of margins, which may take awhile to sort out and finalize):
Looks like Trump is on track to win all of Iowa's 99 counties. Sign of the breadth of his support in the Republican party -- winning among even moderates and suburbanites, in the entrance polls.
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) January 16, 2024
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(2) The much-discussed "battle for second place" was, indeed, intense and competitive. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have gone after each other vigorously for weeks. In the end, DeSantis pulled out slightly in front of Haley, likely due to some of the factors mentioned above. His commitment and hard work and organization in Iowa paid off. But he still lost to Trump by roughly 30 percentage points. The deluge of money spent against him certainly was effective in dampening his support. Ironically, this outcome could actually help Trump in the immediate future. Why? If Haley had secured the second spot, her momentum story would grow stronger and she'd be heading into New Hampshire with a full head of steam. That first-in-the-nation primary (for Republicans only because the Democrats are rigging their system for Biden) happens in one week. But DeSantis finishing second, with his very dim hopes in New Hampshire, deprives Haley of a storyline that could have benefited her in the Granite State with wavering voters.
That factor, plus Trump's commanding victory margin in Iowa, could blunt some of the movement she was building. Of course, New Hampshire is a different animal, and Haley is the only candidate left in the race with a shot at beating Trump there. So I'd argue that a dominant win -- carrying a majority of the vote, coupled with a distant DeSantis second place finish denying a big talking point to his biggest threat in the next contest -- is basically an ideal result, from Trump's perspective. Ramaswamy dropping and endorsing Trump out is icing on the cake for Team MAGA. The Christie departure was consolidation that benefits Haley; Vivek being gone fuels the frontrunner. As I noted last night, it's hard to imagine a better series of outcomes for Trump in Iowa:
- Trump blows it out, hitting 50%+
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 16, 2024
- DeSantis finishes a distant 2nd, narrowly beating out Haley, quite possibly blunting her momentum (& def robbing her of an argument she’d have loved to wield) in NH
- Vivek drops out, a pro-Trump consolidation
Perfect storm for Trump
(3) The old cliche that there's 'always a surprise' was bandied about quite a lot in the lead-up to Monday night. But was there really any notable surprise? The polls showed Trump hovering around 50 percent, with Haley and DeSantis locked in a tight fight for second (the small lead she opened up in the polling was overcome by other fundamentals that were obvious enough that I noticed and articulated them on-air), with Vivek Ramaswamay far behind, in single digits. None of the results constituted a surprise. That said, the strikingly low turnout (a little over 100,000) was a tad unexpected. We knew the subzero temperatures would hold down participation to some extent, but this was weaker than most Iowa-watchers had anticipated. Was this purely a product of the terrible weather? Or have Republican voters already started tuning out this race, assuming -- happily or otherwise -- that it's over, and it's going to be Trump? We'll need a few more data points on that, with the next one arriving in seven days.
(4) Up next, DeSantis' campaign is signaling a stand in South Carolina by jetting there before heading to New Hampshire -- where he's mired in single digits. His uphill climb in the Palmetto state, assuming an underwhelming New Hampshire showing, would be daunting. Trump has a huge lead there, and it's Haley's home turf. Even if Haley can pull it off in New Hampshire, the 2024 GOP primary could effectively come to a close in South Carolina next month if Trump wins it -- putting him at 2-1 or perhaps more likely 3-0 -- in the first three contests. Team DeSantis does have the 'top-two-finishers' feathers to stick in its cap, but this feels like putting on a brave face:
Senior campaign official says @RonDeSantis "earned his ticket out of Iowa," indicating he will not drop out of the race.
— Kit Maher (@KitMaherCNN) January 16, 2024
"This is going to be a long battle, but that is what this campaign is built for. The stakes are too high for this nation and we will not back down."
If there's a viable path for DeSantis (barring a sudden and seismic scenario in which Trump is no longer a candidate), it's hard to see it, even if you squint. Haley's path, despite coming in third in Iowa, is at least a bit less murky: Win New Hampshire, then stage a massive comeback in her home state. Less murky? Yes. More likely? I don't think so. We'll see if either of these campaigns -- and more importantly, primary voters -- prove me wrong. One interesting note to leave you with: In Haley's post-Iowa speech last night, she went more directly and consistently after Trump than we'd previously seen. Let's see how that translates in New Hampshire.
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