Two points of clarification, right out of the gate. First, the word 'now' in the headline question refers to right now -- not necessarily moving forward, or indefinitely. There are reasons to suspect that former President Donald Trump's numbers make a turn for the worse over the coming year, if he's the nominee. We'll consider a few of them below. Second, this is a general election analysis because there's no reason to really examine the question of whether Trump is the frontrunner to be the GOP nominee. He is, far and away, the favorite, and has been for months. Nothing has shifted meaningfully since the early spring, and it's fair to doubt if anything will between now and the flurry of primaries early next year. I'm not entirely foreclosing the possibility of someone other than Trump winning the nomination, but something seismic would need to happen -- beyond, that is, the various significant-to-seismic events that haven't dented Trump up to this point. That reality does not reflect my preference at all, for reasons Ive explained on numerous occasions, but sound analysis must be rooted a clear look at how things really are, not hopeful wish-casting. Barring something enormous, it's going to be Trump.
Which brings us to the issue of whether Trump, right now, is favored to win the 2024 election. As in, if the election were being held in a few weeks, as opposed to 13-plus months from now, would he be the likeliest victor at this moment? My inclination is that the answer is 'yes.' The polling shows a very competitive race between Trump and President Joe Biden, both nationally and in key states. The current Real Clear Politics average shows an exact tie, as of Thursday evening, down to the decimal point. 43.9 percent each. If the final result is approximately tied next fall, there's a very good chance Trump will capture the electoral college. A few recent surveys show Biden up by a nose, or a deadlock. Marist/NPR shows Biden up three points, and expanding his lead if Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. runs as an independent. That sample is D+7, which seems a bit too blue. CNBC's new numbers, with a faint red tint in terms of the sample, have Trump ahead by four points:
CNBC poll
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 20, 2023
Biden approve/dis: (36/58)
Biden economic rating: (33/63)
Biden foreign policy: (31/60)
Important to secure border w/ Mexico?
51% very important
21% somewhat important
(72% total 'important')
2024 rematch (w/ leaners):
Trump 46%
Biden 42%https://t.co/9LQjx1KFb1
On the immigration question, Quinnipiac recently found support for building a border wall surging to an all-time high, hitting a majority. The latest CBS data is just about as as ugly on Biden approval (-20 overall, -26 economy). As we noted last week, a new battleground state tracking poll measures Trump leading Biden by 3-5 points in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, with Biden slightly ahead in Pennsylvania. Michigan is tied. Bloomberg rolled out its swing state polling operation this week (across seven states), and here are the results:
Recommended
President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points on a ballot including Biden, Trump, a Libertarian candidate, a Green Party candidate and a No Labels candidate. In a forced head-to-head between Biden and Trump, Trump continues to lead Biden by 4 points overall...The picture looks bleaker for Biden when digging into independents, who may have the power to decide the 2024 election in these swing states. Among the 1,323 self-identified independents across the seven states, Biden is 10 points behind Trump on the ballot that includes third-party candidates, and he is 8 points behind Trump in a direct head-to-head...Driving Trump’s ballot strength is the trust he garners over Biden in handling the most important issues facing the country today — especially regarding the economy. Swing state voters trust Trump significantly more than Biden on the economy (49% to 35%), with independents holding even less trust in Biden on this key issue (47% to 25%).
📊 Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll: Trump Leads Biden in Five of Seven Swing States.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 19, 2023
Georgia
Trump 48% (+5)
Biden 43%
~~
Arizona
Trump 47% (+4)
Biden 43%
~~
Wisconsin
Trump 46% (+2)
Biden 44%
~~
Pennsylvania
Trump 46% (+1)
Biden 45%
~~
North Carolina
Trump 47% (+4)
Biden 43%
~~… pic.twitter.com/BNFnmeKFyi
In this survey, Trump is leading by low-to-mid single digits in Arizona, Georgia , North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He's tied in Michigan. He's down three to Biden in Nevada. Am I convinced Trump is really in this good shape in all of these states? Not really. Do I think he's quite competitive in all of them during this snapshot in time? Absolutely. The polling averages tell the story. I'll repeat: If the election took place early next month, there is a very strong chance Donald Trump would be elected the 47th president of the United States. But voters won't make these choices for more than a year. What could change between now and then? It's possible that one or both of the current frontrunners for their respective parties' nominations won't actually end up on the ballot. Maybe Republicans will get cold feet about the real possibility of going into a general election with a convicted felon as their candidate. I doubt that would prevent Trump's nomination, but it could very well hinder his prospects against Biden.
The Democrats and their allies will likely vastly outraise and outspend the GOP coalition this cycle (especially with Trump's operation funneling so much money into his various legal defenses), so there will be a relentless and extremely well-funded barrage against Trump over the six months leading up to the election. They will hammer Trump on every poll-tested vulnerability, reminding independent and swing voters why they booted him out in the first place -- plus all the toxic 2020 baggage. That massive push could move the polling. On the other hand, a lot of that cake may already be baked. Everyone knows these two men. Everyone knows what they think of them. Trump's multiple indictments have received saturation coverage, and the polls still look the way they do. People don't like Trump, but they prefer his policies. People don't like Biden, and they're really unhappy with his performance. Unlike last time, he's the incumbent. Maybe Democrats will panic and pull the rip cord on Biden. That could shake up the race dramatically, but who's their alternative? Would the current Vice President over perform Biden? I doubt it. Who would leapfrog her? That would get fraught and divisive. The Democrats are also running out of time to logistically make a change. Tick tock.
A substantial economic resurgence could obviously boost the incumbent. Little-to-no improvement would give the Democrats high anxiety. Sliding into recession could prove political fatal for the ruling party. And just as a Trump conviction could scramble things, so too could some glaring age-related issue for Biden. An illness, a very bad mental lapse, a bad fall. Voters are already convinced he's too old to serve another term effectively. If those sentiments deepen even further, that could be lights out. Given the national and global events of the past two weeks alone, it's pure folly to try to project clean predictions about what's coming our way over the next year. I remain very concerned that Trump's unique vulnerabilities are so acute that he won't be able to overcome them, even against a profoundly weak opponent. In fact, Trump being overshadowed by chaotic news events could be boosting him, as voters tune out of his drama and focus on how dangerous the world has gotten, and how much everything costs. If and when their minds are more focused on the choices before them, polling might shift. The midterms were a major red flag in that regard.
But most Americans do not trust Biden or his party (look at these swing state stats) on the biggest issues of the day, and voters are siding with Trump's governing outcomes over Biden's, even as they may personally (and only slightly) prefer Biden to Trump. All else being equal (which won't be the case), it'll be fascinating to see which of these dynamics would win out. Right now, I think the 'better off?' question tilts things Trump's (and any Republican's) way. I'll leave you with what might be considered a late 2023 canary in the coal mine for both parties. Virginia, which has trended blue for a decade-and-a-half, went for Biden by ten points in 2020, then handed Republicans a statewide sweep the following year. The Commonwealth's off-year 'midterm' legislative elections are on November 7th. Both chambers are up for grabs. The GOP is polling competitively, as Gov. Glenn Youngkin tries to lock down his assembly majority and flip the senate. Youngkin is remarkably popular (this is a D+6 poll), but Democrats are beating Republicans in the money race:
Virginia poll: Governor Youngkin's approval rating reached a record high.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2023
Approve/Disapprove
Overall: 55/36
Dem: 18/73
GOP: 93/2
Indy: 61/29
Male: 56/33
Female: 54/38
White: 62/31
Black: 34/53
Non College: 62/28
College: 48/44@WasonCenter | D34/R28/I33https://t.co/hYlbQD1WiN pic.twitter.com/DMBGBMcaEj
Given the political makeup of Virginia and its proximity to DC, if Republicans win in November, already-nervous national Democrats will grow even more worried. A status quo election would probably give Democrats a tenuous degree of comfort. Republicans losing ground would be a very problematic outcome (more shades of 2022, on the Senate and gubernatorial map), suggesting that Democratic attack lines are still working among the types of voters who decide close elections. Let's see how things are looking on November 8th.
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