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Tipsheet

What Does McCarthy's Ousting Mean for Republicans?

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Eight House Republicans teamed up with unified House Democrats to oust the GOP Speaker on Tuesday, defying the will of roughly 95 percent of the majority.  The handful of members who colluded with Democrats to paralyze the chamber of Congress that Republicans at least nominally control had no plan for what comes next, no alternative for Speaker, and virtually no support among their non-Democrat colleagues.  But under the rules McCarthy was forced to adopt in order to claim the gavel after a multi-ballot humiliation back in January, a single member of his conference had the power to trigger a process to 'vacate the chair,' an effective vote of no confidence in the Speaker.  One attention-addicted showboat chose to exercise that power, brought a few vindictive and chaotic colleagues alongside, and stood with unanimous Democrats to defenestrate Kevin McCarthy.  

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As dazed Republicans prepared to gather behind closed doors to try to determine what to do next, the showboat raced to the television cameras, basking in the notoriety showered upon him by journalists who hate him -- but who love Republican dysfunction and failure more.  The ousted Speaker announced that he would not seek the position again, and the House is in recess until next week.  The chamber is unable to conduct any floor business at all until a new Speaker is elected.  It's unclear who that will be, or when that task will be achieved.  Until then, the Speakership is just vacant and the House is impotent.  This has never happened before.  Some defenders of the showboat adorably and credulously pretend that his maneuver was motivated by a burning desire for good government spending reforms, as opposed to a burning desire for fame, name recognition, and fundraising dollars, perhaps with an eye toward higher office (any one will do, it seems).  The reality is, he manufactured an excuse to topple a man against whom he harbors a personal vendetta.  I described the cynical backdrop the evening before the unprecedented votes occurred:

Collaborating with Democrats is unforgivable, unless it's the 'True Conservatives' doing it to punish collaborating with Democrats (which the True Conservatives forced by opposing conservative spending bill alternatives).  What "principled" heroism.  I reacted in real time to the votes, after the Speaker's fate was sealed:

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As long as Republican voters tolerate or encourage grievance, victimhood and failure -- and incentivize selfish celebrity preening -- among their elected officials and candidates, we will get more of this.  Advantage: Democrats.  For all their increasing radicalism and ruinous policies, Democrats ultimately prize winning and power.  They subordinate other impulses to those crucial ends.  That's why Speaker Nancy Pelosi never dealt with this sort of nonsense when she presided over a similarly-precarious majority in 2021 and 2022.  Her 'Squad' squawkers and "moderates" would posture and issue threats, but ultimately fell in line.  They rammed through a lot of their agenda by sticking together.  They know that power is paramount, and that winning politics is a team sport.  It's the same reason why they all fell in line behind Biden, replete with a cascading dropout/consolidation process as soon as the party elders decided what needed to be done.  Democratic voters, extremely lukewarm on Biden for all sorts of reasons, also lined up to salute.  And they won.  

Republicans don't need to emulate such a top-down, strong-arm approach entirely, but they could and should learn a thing or two from their ruthless, calculated, disciplined opponents.  Because whatever the GOP has been doing (largely because enough of them believe it's in their myopic interests to do so) is an embarrassing mess.  As far as right-leaning political operatives go, Mitch McConnell confidante Josh Holmes and populist Trumper Stephen Miller are hardly cut from the same cloth.  They operate within from different wings of the party.  But on this point, they vehemently agree.  You just cannot govern this way (fast forward to the 6:20 mark of the clip below for Miller's Holmes-echoing rant):

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"The Republican Party cannot exist as a functional party if just eight members at any given time can join with all of the Democrats and eject the Speaker.  If you want to be like the Left, if you want to beat the Left, if you want to dominate the Left, if you want to save the country from the Left, you have to learn from them.  They operate as a unit.  They operate as a team. They find their strength in unity.  Republicans...need to focus."

Congressman Chip Roy, one of the initial anti-McCarthy insurgents in January (and who constructively secured some of the power dynamics and process reforms he was seeking before backing the Speaker), adamantly opposed his removal yesterday. He also had harsh words for the nihilistic showboat in question:

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Who knows what the coming days and weeks will bring, and whether the next Speaker will meet a similar fate as soon as a few people's whims dictate that it's time for more money and attention -- oh, sorry, "principles." Republican voters can keep rewarding unserious demagogues who play to their collective id, or they can be adults who want to win and govern. These days, it's looking more and more like a binary choice. Choose wisely, or lose. And if you're sick of losing, maybe it's time to quit the people who seem addicted to it.  I'll leave you with a review of the very good and healthy state of our politics and incentive structure these days:

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Matt 'Prayed Against the Red Wave' Rosendale ran against the exact same Montana Democratic incumbent last time -- and lost. The party has an appealing, young, accomplished challenger in mind, but Rosendale wants to try again.  And he's leading big in the primary polls. Again I ask, does this party and its voters actually want to win?  Or is screaming about the unfairness and illegitimacy of all the losing more viscerally appealing on some level?  You can blame this all, mostly, somewhat, or not at all on Trump, but these are the results:


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