Pennsylvania was a disaster for Republicans in 2022. The party's gubernatorial nominee got blown out, John Fetterman was elected to the United States Senate, competitive Congressional races tipped blue, and Democrats gained double-digit seats in the state legislature. Indeed, things haven't gone well for the GOP in the Keystone State since the surprise cycle of 2016. Could next year be different? Most factors are unpredictable at this stage, it's a blue-tinted state, and quite a lot will depend on the national mood -- very much including what's happening at the very top of the ticket. But one cause for cautious early optimism is what's been going on in the US Senate race thus far. In the last cycle, a truly bruising primary resulted in a razor-thin victory for Trump-endorsed Dr. Oz, who emerged from that battle bloodied and bruised.
Oz made some early missteps in the general election and got defined as a snake oil weirdo from New Jersey. In spite of running a much better campaign as the fall progressed, he couldn't overcome Doug Mastriano's disaster of a gubernatorial campaign, the prevailing winds in the state, and Democrats' early/mail ballot advantage (which built up a lead even before the infamous debate that revealed the severity of Fetterman's post-stroke condition). Enter Dave McCormick. The combat veteran and successful businessman lost to Oz in 2022 by fewer than 1,000 votes. Last month, he announced his candidacy to take on incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, a career politician with a famous Pennsylvania last name:
Unlike last time, a broad center-right coalition has endorsed McCormick very early in the cycle. No serious primary challenge is expected to arise. McCormick is therefore already the presumptive nominee, which gives him a welcome head start. This development from just last week was very significant:
As they aim to flip a Democratic-held Senate seat in a crucial battleground state in 2024, the Pennsylvania GOP is working to prevent a repeat of last year's crowded and combustible primary. Pennsylvania Republican committee members unanimously endorsed Dave McCormick Saturday as their party's nominee in next year's showdown against longtime Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. The race could ultimately decide whether the GOP wins back the Senate majority. "I am deeply humbled to receive the unanimous endorsement of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania. United as one, Republicans across Pennsylvania will win. We will defeat Bob Casey and bring strong leadership to Washington on behalf of the commonwealth," McCormick said as he accepted the state party's endorsement as it met in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania...McCormick had been courted by national and state Republicans to run, and his candidacy gives the GOP a high-profile candidate with the ability to finance his own race that's expected to be one of the most expensive in the country.
Prominent PA-based reporter and columnist Salena Zito calls this "a big deal," In addition to this, the Pennsylvania GOP is making a big push to embrace the state's voting laws and try to narrow the gap on early/mail-in votes, on which Democrats have developed a huge advantage. I interviewed McCormick on my radio show this week, and he laid out his biography, his vision, and his case against the incumbent:
Bob Casey has been an inconsequential Senator who has failed to deliver wins for the people of Pennsylvania.
— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) October 3, 2023
If you send me to Washington, I’ll be a strong leader who isn’t afraid to shake things up.
Enjoyed talking about the significance of this race with @guypbenson on the… https://t.co/HpZNcH2ZHy
“Fetterman was just elected and already has more name recognition than Bob Casey… in one of the most consequential states in the country, [Casey] has been an inconsequential Senator.” Parting thought: Forget most Americans -- could most Pennsylvanians pick Bob Casey out of a lineup? He's been their Democrat rubber-stamp Senator for nearly two decades.
