Hot on the heels of his fourth criminal indictment – two federal, one in Georgia, and one in New York City, now totaling 91 charges – former President Donald Trump is tripling down on claims that the 2020 election in Georgia was stolen from him. In a Truth Social post published yesterday, Trump teases that he plans to reveal what he characterizes as "conclusive" proof of the supposed fraud in a press conference scheduled for next Monday.
In response, the state's Republican Governor, who won re-election handily last year, wholly rejected Trump's premise:
The 2020 election in Georgia was not stolen.
— Brian Kemp (@BrianKempGA) August 15, 2023
For nearly three years now, anyone with evidence of fraud has failed to come forward - under oath - and prove anything in a court of law. Our elections in Georgia are secure, accessible, and fair and will continue to be as long as I… pic.twitter.com/jaru2iBDo7
Trump's campaign had dozens of opportunities to prove their voter fraud/'stop the steal' accusations in court in late 2020, including in front of GOP-appointed (and even Trump-appointed) judges. They failed across the board, sometimes not even attempting to prove election-altering fraud when given the chance. This was the case in multiple contested states, including Georgia. As Gov. Kemp asserts, it's a fact that Trump lost the Peach State nearly three years ago. I recognize that many Republicans aren't so sure that's true, or are convinced it's not. I disagree, but for the sake of argument, let's stipulate that there's at least some ambiguity on the question. Even if that's the case, is endlessly re-litigating the 2020 election helpful or harmful to Republicans' chances of beating the Democrats over the next 14 months or so? Large elements of the GOP base and hardcore Trump supporters are steadfast in their belief that Trump was robbed. Independent and swing voters hold the opposite view -- strongly and lopsidedly.
Democrats' dream come true would be to contest a 2024 election against Donald Trump in which 2020 and January 6th are active, live, overwhelming issues. Joe Biden didn't begin his re-election announcement video with January 6th footage by accident. This is what they want. It's what the media wants. They may get what they want, and still lose, as was the case in 2016. But they might get what they want and be heavily favored to win again because they recognize these conditions as extremely favorable:
Donald Trump *will* spend much of the next year in and out of courtrooms. His donors *will* contribute not to their political interests but a legal defense fund. The press *will* treat his ordeal as a substitute for campaign events in the absence of actual campaign events. https://t.co/30BpoPx9xl
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) August 15, 2023
One conservative commentator I regard as level-headed in his analysis makes this overall point about the simultaneous swirl of Trump legal trouble, and its effects on the next election cycle:
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On the purely political question: I don't think people understand what a Trump v. Biden general looks like. Trump will have 2-3 trials going on. All the coverage will be [about] his cases, 24/7. New revelations will come out daily and every Republican candidate will be asked to defend them. All negative. Biden's record won't even come up. Biden will then drop a hundred million dollars in ads in key states, reminding independents why they hate Trump and will build an extensive turnout operation to reinforce with the base. Trump will spend all his money on personal legal fees -- so no turnout operation, no campaign pre-challenges, and almost no ads. Completely reliant on earned media. Nothing you see now [in early polling] accounts for any of this.
Granted, some of that may be overstated. Trump may "only" have one active trial by election season, with others looming, including pre-trial motions and activity. Not all of the coverage will be centered around these issues, but much of it will be (January 6 in particular). Biden's record will be adjudicated, but not nearly in the way it deserves to be, especially for a sitting, failing president. Trump demonstrates no ability to not take the bait and continuously swim in the politically-toxic pool of 2020 revisionism. Trump, his campaign, and national Republican groups will certainly spent heavily on the campaign in his favor, and against Biden. Some sort of a turnout operation and ground game will exist. It won't be a spending shutout, or even necessarily a blowout, in favor of the Democrats. But some substantial portion of Trump's campaign world war chest will be siphoned off to cover mounting, massive legal fees. This has already happened, to an astonishing extent. And some substantial portion of the GOP nominee's time and energy (if it's Trump) will be consumed with these legal perils, as opposed to running a full-time campaign to defeat Biden and his party. Numbers like these, showing the massive gap between Republican primary voter sentiment, and overall voter sentiment, are serious red flags:
Tough general election reality in these numbers for GOP to consider.
— Josh Holmes (@HolmesJosh) August 16, 2023
35%+ gap in Trump fav between primary and general electorate.
64%(!!) say they definitely or probably would not support Trump in Nov ‘24. 53 definite. https://t.co/bkaSxbiEhM
Yes, it is possible that Trump could still win under these circumstances, especially if the economy is hammering the incumbent, along with his various scandals (though you can take it to the bank that the press will do everything it can to minimize Biden's ethical or legal problems while amplifying Trump's). But how likely is it, especially in light of the clear lessons of the last three election cycles? I understand why many Republicans believe that our justice system is politicized or even corrupt at the highest levels. I can further understand why many of them may be inclined to channel that anger into voting for the man they see as The Swamp's top target. But if The Swamp affirmatively wants to run against that same man because its creatures believe he'll be the easiest to defeat -- thus further solidifying their grip on the levers of power -- I don't see how giving The Swamp precisely what it's practically begging for is a course of action that maximizes winning the election and therefore at least having a shot at solving the underlying problems. And boy, do we have problems, many of them caused or exacerbated by the guy who richly deserves defeat next fall:
The typical American household spent $709 more in July than they did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics. https://t.co/xOCN7S8YKI
— CNN (@CNN) August 12, 2023
