I'm not prepared to make declarative statements about how November 8th is going to go, and you know what they say about counting chickens. But it's increasingly looking like a red wave is cresting. One of the questions I've been pondering for the last few months is whether 2022 will look more like 2018 (when the opposition party had a good night in the House, but underperformed in the Senate, due to various dynamics) or 2014 (when Republicans appeared to be underperforming through much of the cycle before a decisive break at the tail end made it political bloodbath). Atmospheric clues and data breadcrumbs suggest that the latter historical analogue may end up looking more apt when the votes are counted in a few weeks. Consider this:
And, lots of talk about GOP horse race moves on generic ballot.
— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) October 21, 2022
But, again, focusing on vote share looking at this week’s nat’l polling compared to previous week shows story is really about D’s being stuck with Biden. (Which is typical with a president’s party in a midterm). pic.twitter.com/oPGtB468Hu
Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende calls this "a nice distillation of the 'it is 2014 again' theory of 2022." It's far from guaranteed, but it's compelling. And if this is the Biden baseline, that's dire territory for his party:
Is this the 3rd or 4th poll that has Biden at 39%, published in the last week? https://t.co/7aSxjkKQ3Z
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 21, 2022
The hallmarks of a substantial wave are cropping up everywhere. Plausibly competitive races are looking...well, not:
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Governor Abbot holds 𝟭𝟭 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Beto O'Rourke in Texas Governor Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2022
GOVERNOR
(R) Greg Abbott 54% (+11)
(D) Beto O'Rourke 43%
⦿ @TxPolProject
⦿ 883 LV | 10/07-17https://t.co/x11oFVwRZY pic.twitter.com/hEjPwPSJPh
🚨 FLORIDA POLL By RMG Research
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 20, 2022
GOVERNOR
(R) Ron DeSantis 52% (+10)
(D) Charlie Crist 42%
SENATE
(R) Marco Rubio 50% (+5)
(D) Val Demings 45%
October 10-13 | LV's | MOE ±3.7%https://t.co/Y8mL9gjwSj pic.twitter.com/6gC3ii0GKK
🚨 FLORIDA POLL By FAU
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2022
GOVERNOR
(R) Ron DeSantis 51% (+11)
(D) Charlie Crist 40%
SENATE
(R) Marco Rubio 48% (+6)
(D) Val Demings 42%
PRESIDENT
(R) Ron DeSantis 48% (+6)
(D) Joe Biden 42%
(R) Donald Trump 45% (+4)
(D) Joe Biden 41%
719 LV | 10/12-16https://t.co/ul1eg61PwB pic.twitter.com/rcdl1OiL3L
And races that looked cooked over recent weeks and months are looking...well, not:
🚨 NEW YORK POLL By Survey USA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 20, 2022
(D) Kathy Hochul 47% (+6)
(R) Lee Zeldin 41%
⦿ August Poll: 55/31 (Hochul+24) — that's 𝟭𝟴 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 towards Zeldin
NY Generic Ballot
Dem — 47% (+9)
GOP — 38%
⦿ 13 point shift towards the GOP from Aug https://t.co/5eDqaN1QAR pic.twitter.com/NO3fWln6v8
🚨 New Mitchell poll has Tudor Dixon
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2022
within 2 points against Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan Governor Race
(D) Gretchen Whitmer 49% (+2)
(R) Tudor Dixon 47%
⦿ Mitchell Research
⦿ 10/19 | MoE ±2.1 | N=541 pic.twitter.com/W1B8xmW4Sg
NEW: @Fabrizio_Lee (R)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2022
NH SENATE
(D) Maggie Hassan 49% (+2)
(R) Don Bolduc 47%
NH GOVERNOR
(R) Chris Sununu 57% (+17)
(D) Tom Sherman 40%
NH Generic Ballot
Democrats 48% (+1)
Republicans 47% pic.twitter.com/W7hbkiR8y9
I wouldn't bet any money on the GOP winning any of those three races, but if the Democrats are squirming at all in a statewide New York election, that's a very bad sign for them nationally (and in about half a dozen competitive Congressional races in the state). And if they're sweating the New Hampshire Senate race or the Michigan gubernatorial contest, that might portend dark things for the ruling party in, say, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, respectively. I'll reiterate the caveat that nothing is assured, and voters affect outcomes, not polls. But if I were a Democratic operative, I'd have a sinking feeling these days, with two-and-a-half weeks to go until the election -- with early voting well underway in many places. I've prattled on about the 'fundamentals' of the election cycle for months, but it really does appear as though those fundamentals are taking hold, with political gravity doing its thing:
Seems like something is happening. pic.twitter.com/0FATW9OYbs
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 21, 2022
Republicans have retaken the lead in our polling average of the generic congressional ballot. https://t.co/5pLjOhFG6U pic.twitter.com/uTzS3BCdBJ
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) October 20, 2022
Change in generic ballot, September to October:
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2022
⦿ NYT/Siena: D+2 ---> R+4
⦿ CBS News: R+1 ----> R+2
⦿ Harvard-Harris: D+2 ----> R+6
⦿ Big Data Poll: R+1 ----> R+5
⦿ Economist: D+2 ----> R+1
⦿ Monmouth: R+3 ----> R+6
⦿ Politico: D+4 ----> D+1
⦿ Rasmussen: R+1 ----> R+7 pic.twitter.com/jY4O3orNUm
Conservative radio host Erick Erickson thinks he's seen this movie before:
In years of a Republican wave, the media spends most of the time avoiding or downplaying the issues the GOP is talking about. Then, one day, the switch flips and that is all anyone talks about.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) October 21, 2022
CBS is talking to voters in AZ who are upset about crime and the economy so won't vote for Kelly. The switch has flipped. The wave is on the horizon. This is one of those years.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) October 21, 2022
Yesterday, I shared some early voting tea leaves out of Florida (early voting tea leaves are precarious business, it must be acknowledged), so I'll leave you with another little related nugget out of North Carolina:
To put it nicely, these numbers are bad for North Carolina Democrats. Will have to see if the #s continue like this. Typically IPEV gets more GOP as time goes on. https://t.co/AuVIFHHjvE
— Justin 🎃 👻 (@JustR_02) October 21, 2022
Wave vibes.
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