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Harvard/Harris Poll Shows How Disconnected Democrats Are from Voters' Priorities

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Every so often, a data point will stop you in your tracks. We'll see if this is borne out in additional data, particularly in exit polling -- but if this is relatively reflective of reality, it's the type of thing that might get cited quite a lot in post-election analyses. If, that is, Republicans have a big night on November 8th. If we see a red wave, as opposed to a red ripple, this would loom large.  

Via a fresh Harvard/Harris national survey: 

Voters perceive Republicans as focused on the same issues they themselves prioritize, whereas Democrats are seen as zeroed in on other matters.  This would represent a double dose of 'out-of-touch' detachment.  Democrats appear to be misprioritizing issues in the minds of voters, and on the single most important issue, the country's leading Democrat has no grasp on the challenge.  That same poll, with leaners, shows the GOP opening up a serious lead on the generic 2022 ballot:

That looks rather similar to Trafalgar's latest:

In late September, Democrats held a slim lead on this metric.  They've trailed for almost a month now, with the GOP holding a 1-2 point lead, on average.  As a reminder, on election day of last year, Democrats were up by a point on the generic ballot nationally, then saw 11-12 point swings away from Biden's margins in New Jersey and Virginia, the latter of which elected a Republican statewide sweep.  As of Sunday, Republicans are ahead in each of the last four likely voters polls (see update), while trailing in Fox's new registered voters poll by three points.  But that Fox data set also measured the generic ballot among those who 'feel certain' they'll vote (i.e. likely voters), and the GOP has a one-point lead among that group.  Then there's this from CBS:

I can tell you this: If Republicans win the House 'popular' vote by two points on November 8, they'll net more than 11 total seats.  I'll leave you with the shambles that is Democratic messaging down the stretch -- not even the "strong as hell" comment from Biden:

UPDATE - NYT/Siena's latest shows Republicans up four on the generic ballot.  We'll have more on the significance of that survey tomorrow.



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