Every so often, a data point will stop you in your tracks. We'll see if this is borne out in additional data, particularly in exit polling -- but if this is relatively reflective of reality, it's the type of thing that might get cited quite a lot in post-election analyses. If, that is, Republicans have a big night on November 8th. If we see a red wave, as opposed to a red ripple, this would loom large.
Via a fresh Harvard/Harris national survey:
Voters say Dems are most focused on Jan 6 which ranked as the 19th most important issue facing the country. Then women's rights which ranked 5th. Then Climate which ranked 8th.
— Eddie Zipperer (@EddieZipperer) October 15, 2022
Meanwhile, the three issues people see GOP as most focused on rank 1, 2, and 3
Voters perceive Republicans as focused on the same issues they themselves prioritize, whereas Democrats are seen as zeroed in on other matters. This would represent a double dose of 'out-of-touch' detachment. Democrats appear to be misprioritizing issues in the minds of voters, and on the single most important issue, the country's leading Democrat has no grasp on the challenge. That same poll, with leaners, shows the GOP opening up a serious lead on the generic 2022 ballot:
𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗣𝗢𝗟𝗟: Republicans hold 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on 2022 Congressional Generic Ballot among Likely Voters (with leaners)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 14, 2022
Republicans 53% (+6)
Democrats 47%
⚪ Harvard/Harris
⚪ October 12-13https://t.co/lrKj8jPM8x pic.twitter.com/kfUFPo1gMM
That looks rather similar to Trafalgar's latest:
New #GenericBallot @trafalgar_group #Poll (10/10-12) shows similar margin but increase in undecided:
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) October 15, 2022
48.2% #GOP
42.9% #Dem
8.9% Und
See Report: https://t.co/Qh2t3Vuad1 pic.twitter.com/weemkAEIh9
In late September, Democrats held a slim lead on this metric. They've trailed for almost a month now, with the GOP holding a 1-2 point lead, on average. As a reminder, on election day of last year, Democrats were up by a point on the generic ballot nationally, then saw 11-12 point swings away from Biden's margins in New Jersey and Virginia, the latter of which elected a Republican statewide sweep. As of Sunday, Republicans are ahead in each of the last four likely voters polls (see update), while trailing in Fox's new registered voters poll by three points. But that Fox data set also measured the generic ballot among those who 'feel certain' they'll vote (i.e. likely voters), and the GOP has a one-point lead among that group. Then there's this from CBS:
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Republicans hold 𝟮 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on Generic Ballot
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 16, 2022
Republicans 47% (+2)
Democrats 45%
October 12-14 | CBS/YouGov | LV https://t.co/IYE9K6CD44 pic.twitter.com/ZzRzraeBRt
NEW @CBSNewsPoll shows dire economic numbers for Dems & Rs leading on the generic ballot.
— Michael McAdams (@M_McAdams) October 16, 2022
Generic Ballot: R 47% v D 45%
State of Economy: 27% good v 70% bad
Abortion, the sole focus of Democrats' campaign efforts, has fallen to 7th on the issue matrix.https://t.co/iZHjguQb7v pic.twitter.com/sWeZBhwHct
I can tell you this: If Republicans win the House 'popular' vote by two points on November 8, they'll net more than 11 total seats. I'll leave you with the shambles that is Democratic messaging down the stretch -- not even the "strong as hell" comment from Biden:
Somehow I don't think "Republicans are the party of inflation" is going to catch on after the past two years. https://t.co/vcbXBGRVco
— Brian Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦 (@Brian_Riedl) October 16, 2022
No doubt Dems $1.9T 'American Rescue Plan' fueled inflation. So now, Dems are *not* touting it in campaign, NYT reports. Why? Because it has become 'fodder for Republican attacks.' Another reason: It fueled inflation. https://t.co/QpFZFepnGr
— Byron York (@ByronYork) October 16, 2022
UPDATE - NYT/Siena's latest shows Republicans up four on the generic ballot. We'll have more on the significance of that survey tomorrow.