All of a sudden, it's September, and the upcoming elections are nearly two months out. To some extent, the question posed in the headline is a 'pick your poll' proposition, as competing narratives take form. One storyline posits that the 2022 elections are still shaping up as a shellacking for the ruling party. The president's numbers are very bad, Americans are heavily dissatisfied with the direction of the country, and both historical trends and current generic ballot data point to significant Republican gains in the fall. The other line of thought suggests that there's been a 'vibe shift' over the summer, with Democrats' standing substantially improved, leaving them in a position to limit House losses and likely retain control of the Senate. There is at least some evidence backing each theory of the case.
The 'Democrats gaining' side is bolstered by the generic ballot being almost exactly tied, after Republicans have led on the measure for most of the calendar year. The president's average job approval rating, while still quite weak, has ticked up into the low 40's, whereas he was languishing in the upper 30's throughout much of the summer. Republicans have nominated a number of first-time candidates with serious vulnerabilities in significant statewide races, some of whom have been seriously under-performing in public polling thus far. Democrats, by contrast, have over-performed in a string of special House elections, reflecting a more energized base in the wake of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. Also, gas prices have fallen (whether they maintain that trajectory in the next few months is an open question), making the the party in power's position a bit less nightmarish from a political perspective.
And one Donald J. Trump has once again been at the center of much of the national political discourse for weeks, further reigniting Democratic enthusiasm, while perhaps peeling rightward-drifting independents back away from the opposition party -- or at least giving them second thoughts. A fresh Wall Street Journal survey shows the party in power edging out to a slim lead on the 2022 ballot, with Biden's fortunes improving. And even amid the mess that has been the Biden administration, the more we're talking about Trump, the more the overall national dynamic evolves from essentially a pure referendum on Biden and the Democrats' stewardship of the country to something closer to a choice. And Trump embodies the other choice in the minds of more than a few swing voters. Trump is again at the forefront -- and Biden is benefiting, by comparison:
“Biden leads Trump in a hypothetical rematch of the last presidential election, 50% to 44%. The two men had been tied in March. In the test match-up, Mr. Biden leads among independents, 46% to 38%.”
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 1, 2022
On the other hand, a number of worthwhile data points indicate that Biden remains a deeply unpopular president, the right track/wrong track data is historically dismal, Republicans in some important Senate races appear to be gaining some steam (see polls out of Georgia, Colorado, and even Pennsylvania). A number of national polls show Democrats pushing into the lead on the generic ballot, but the closely-watched Trafalgar poll -- which has picked up on some trends that many pollsters have missed in recent cycles -- tracks the GOP advantage widening a bit:
NEW: Trafalgar Group Poll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 31, 2022
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 47% (+6)
Democrats 41%
1,084 LV | 08/28-30 | D39/R36/I25https://t.co/DBg3Y4I7Hm pic.twitter.com/l803KMyjC3
There's also the elephant in the room of notable polling misses over recent cycles, with Republicans often ultimately outperforming their polling standing at this stage of of the horserace (I'd also add that summer polling can be notoriously suspect). Consider this:
Unquestionably, the forecast for November has darkened for the right over the past month. But has it darkened so much that Republicans are underdogs? Elliott Morris, data guy at The Economist, is skeptical. Yes, Democrats are favored if the polls aren’t overestimating Democratic support. Which they did in 2016. And in 2020. By a lot... It would be one thing if the 2020 polling had been a black-swan fluke, since flukes do happen. There’d be no reason to assume a similar polling miss this fall. But it wasn’t a fluke: After underestimating Trump’s support in two successive presidential cycles, pollsters are left to wonder how many MAGA Republicans simply aren’t picking up the phone anymore when pollsters call. And, conversely, how many pro-choice liberals *are* excitedly picking up the phone to chatter to the pollster that they’re pissed off about abortion. You can’t get a representative sample of the electorate if Democrats are overly eager to answer surveys while Republicans want nothing to do with the process. If this year’s national polls are overestimating Democrats by four points again, says Morris, then the odds of the party winning a Senate majority drop to 45 percent...If the state polls are as biased towards Dems as they were in 2020, the party’s odds of winning the Senate fall to less than one in three.
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But haven't some of the aforementioned special elections in House districts (including Sarah Palin's loss in Alaska, a state in which the incumbent GOP Senator won by 13 points in blue-tinted 2020) proven that maybe the polls may actually be underestimating Democrats this time around? That's a stretch. Read this about Alaska, and also understand that election gurus have been buzzing about this effect over the last few weeks:
Great work here, showing Dems are benefiting in special elections by high engagement amove high-turnout voters -- which will not necessarily translate to the same success in Nov https://t.co/v3IRi2L6R7
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) August 30, 2022
I've also been arguing lately that Democrats have been really overselling their special election performances, for various reasons. Might Biden's outrageous and unlawful student loan giveaway scheme hurt his party? After all, a large majority of Americans hold no college or grad school debt, and may not be thrilled by the prospect of having their hard-earned tax dollars flowing to disproportionately richer people to help pay down debts those people knowingly chose to incur. But polling seems to show that Biden's latest inflationary move is at least somewhat popular, with a few public opinion cross-currents. People tend to love 'free' money, even if it's not destined for them...this time. Then again, if inflation gets worse and higher education costs continue to rise (the latter of which is inevitable), the moderately good mood could sour. Quickly. But will those consequences materialize before November? Democrats are counting on that answer being 'no.' Relatedly, I'll be curious to see if and how this plays out:
Over the last few days, all of our polling shifted right — by a lot.
— Nick Stehle (@nstehle) September 1, 2022
Biden’s student loan forgiveness move is going to be devastating for the Left.
Finally, since we've discussed the tightening of the 'generic ballot' as potential evidence of meaningful Democratic momentum, this flashback might be useful to ponder:
Additional data points worth considering: One month out from the 2021 off-year elections, Democrats led on the avg generic ballot by nearly 4 points. They still led on election day. Then VA & NJ both swung ~11 net points toward the GOP vs. Biden's 2020 margins. https://t.co/rHpCozytAR pic.twitter.com/ximXLAreTi
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 1, 2022
My pre-Labor Day bottom line hasn't changed: The 'fundamentals' of the election are bad for Democrats. The picture has grown less grim, but under these circumstances, Republicans should easily win back the House and have a real shot at taking the Senate, too. A great night for the GOP would look like 2010 or 2014. A less than great night would more closely resemble 2018 in reverse. If a less 'wave-like' outcome materializes, there will be lots of time for recriminations on the Right (the severity of which depend on how far short of baseline expectations those results might end up), but neither complacency nor 'precriminations' are in order right now. There's an important election looming, and Republicans stand a good chance of making real gains. Very soon, all the speculation will end, and the actual voting will begin.
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