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Confirmed: No Post-Convention Bounce for Biden

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Posted: Aug 26, 2020 1:05 PM
Confirmed: No Post-Convention Bounce for Biden

Leah wrote on Monday about some early indications that the Democratic ticket didn't enjoy any 'bounce' coming out of their national convention, and now it looks like that outcome is confirmed.  In addition to the YouGov and Rasmussen numbers, a fresh survey from CBS News shows an absolutely flat race, with Biden's lead unchanged.  That's the good news for Republicans.  The less good news?  As with YouGov's numbers (Biden +9), the new CBS data shows that the static race remains tipped decidedly in Biden's favor:


Here's a lefty suggesting that Democrats made a mistake trying to win over Republicans at their convention, based on the poll's internals:


Other hardcore leftists are making similar points.  I'm not sure that's the correct takeaway.  It seems as though many of the persuadable Republican voters who detest Trump enough to vote for the opposing ticket have already ceased self-identifying as Republicans -- and possibly even independents.  Note how Trump's grip on GOP voters is nearly identical to Biden's share among Democrats (Biden has a very small edge on this partisan loyalty metric).  What should worry Republicans at this point is that Trump holds a ten-point lead over Biden among independents, and still trails overall by the same margin: Ten points.  This suggests that Democrats have enough voters in their corner at this point that they could lose virtually all voters who remain in the GOP, and lose indies by double-digits, and retain a comfortable lead.  In short, Biden didn't need a convention bump.  It looks like he's already at his ceiling.  In fact, might he be experiencing an anti-bounce?

This has not become an urgent problem for Team Biden -- yet.  On the other side, if the GOP convention is viewed as a general success after four nights, but there's no positive movement in the polls, that will feel more like a panic button moment for Team Trump and the party.  This week Republicans need to bring lock in a few more stray voters from their coalition, try to run stronger among independents, and attempt to coax some defectors back into the red camp -- or at least to independent status.  And as we wrote yesterday, Republicans may have something cooking with the 'law and order' theme.  Democrats could not be bothered to even acknowledge widespread rioting and unrest across the country, clearly by design.  Republicans have picked up that ball and ran with it, and many, many voters are receptive to that message, especially as a small city in Wisconsin gets rocked with three consecutive nights of chaos and destruction.  This woman's heartache and fury is visceral, and she speaks for a lot of people, whom Democrats have made an active choice to ignore (content warning):


And then we had the awful killings last night, a heartbreaking and inevitable outcome of total mayhem reigning for nights on end, with a power vacuum being filled with criminals and vigilantes (some of whom may have justifiably concluded that it's up to them to prevent additional crimes).  The Democratic governor in Wisconsin seemed more interested in resisting Trump than fixing the problem, which is now par for the course.  People in affected communities may want to pray for a Trump polling bump, if only to scare the Democrats into doing something -- not because they necessarily want to end riots, but because they're worried the election could slip away.  One more cycle of worrisome data could trigger a heel turn from national Democrats.  Keep an eye out for that.

Also, if you're not following Julio's coverage on the ground in Kenosha, you should be.  Allahpundit is right that it would be "political malpractice if Republicans don’t incorporate Kenosha into [their] convention proceedings."  The point is self evident: Democrats are at best silent on violence, looting and rioting -- and based on their own rhetorical standards and sloganeering, silence is tantamount to complicity.  And now the violence, looting and rioting isn't just limited to deep blue major cities like Portland, Oregon (where nightly riots have occurred for the last three months, with new devastation each night); it's tearing apart a small city in Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, in case you missed it earlier in the week, here's the increasingly cretinous Speaker of the House all but labeling her political opponents traitors. Even worse, she's hurling this bile in furtherance of a conspiracy theory:

This isn’t the first time lately that her rhetoric about Trump and Republicans has gone to a place that seems motivated less by strategy than by not-quite-controlled contempt. Sometimes it’s petty insults, like when she claimed in May that Trump was “morbidly obese.”Other times it’s bareknuckle demagoguery, accusing Republicans in June of trying to get away with the murder of George Floyd because their police-reform bill wasn’t to her liking. Last month she took to calling the coronavirus the “Trump virus.” Most famously, there was the spectacle of her theatrically tearing up Trump’s prepared remarks on camera after he finished the State of the Union.  When, exactly, did Nancy Pelosi start to lose her sh*t? Can we pinpoint it?

Democrats are either stating or heavily implying that a return to Democratic control will represent a return to normalcy, compared to the volatility and havoc of Donald Trump. Based on the above rhetoric and outcomes, how does that potential 'new normal' sound to you?