I still don't think it's happening, but she and her acolytes have been teasing it just enough to suggest that the door isn't firmly shut. If Hillary Clinton has any designs on launching a presidential run this cycle, this new poll from Fox News suggests that a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate would welcome her with open arms. Third time's a charm?
Fox News Poll: If Hillary Clinton jumped in the 2020 race, there are 27% of Democrats who would "definitely vote for her."
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 3, 2019
Hillary Clinton is only going to be emboldened by this... Fox News doing quite a troll job right here to bait her in. pic.twitter.com/N7kNu6u7wB
Fox's nonpartisan pollster isn't trying to "troll" or "bait her" into joining the race, in my view; as I've already mentioned, Clinton-tied figures (including Bill) have been fueling this speculation. Why not poll it? The 'good' news for Mrs. Clinton is that if she were to jump in, she'd instantly be near or at the top of the heap. The bad is that 'Never Hillary' sentiment outpaces her support by three percentage points (also, Michelle Obama appears far more favorably situated to play the role of eleventh-hour savior). The survey also shows Hillary hypothetically leading Trump by two points in a head-to-head. That may seem like more positive news from her perspective...until you realize that the same poll shows Warren ahead by five points, Bernie up eight, and Biden leading by 11 (only Pete Buttigieg performs worse than Clinton on this measure). Also, ahem. And not to poke at a sore spot that is a source of endless blame and conspiratorial absurdity for her, but what did a two-point national edge get Hillary last time around?
As I indicated from the start, I don't think an outsider is going to swoop in and dramatically change this race. The Democratic nominee is almost certainly going to emerge from the existing, shrinking field. Beto O'Rourke's woke culture warrior schtick is out, and things are really looking bleak for another one-time contender, who famously and arrogantly described herself as a 'top tier candidate' in order to dismiss a specific, searing critique from a lesser-known rival. She's already attempted the stratagem of doubling down on Iowa, which did nothing to reverse her slide. This is now a desperation triple down:
NBC News has confirmed that @KamalaHarris’ New Hampshire campaign is closing their three field offices in Nashua, Portsmouth and Keene, and has cancelled her trip to New Hampshire that was originally scheduled for next week as she goes all in on Iowa.
— Amanda Golden (@amandawgolden) November 1, 2019
Meanwhile, for all the talk about Biden's weakness and Warren's gathering strength (for which the media is rooting hard), Grandpa Joe has again stabilized as the clear national frontrunner:
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) November 3, 2019
That's a welcome reality for Biden (and an unwelcome truth for Hillary, whose only plausible opening would arise in the event of a total Biden meltdown). On the flip side, as has been pointed out ad nauseam by every pundit in the country, there is no "national primary." Biden is reportedly in serious danger of posting weak losses in the first three nominating contests of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Waiting until round four for your firewall to kick in is risky stuff, as far as momentum and perceptions go. Team Joe is going to need to hope and pray that the Boomer-plus stick with him:
Post-ABC News poll:
— Terri Rupar (@terri_rupar) November 3, 2019
Among Dem-leaning voters 50 and older
Biden 38
Warren 22
Buttigieg 10
Sanders 9
Among Dem-leaning voters under 50
Sanders 25
Warren 25
Biden 17https://t.co/EUELSbN71T
And because the Fox poll mentioned above gave Biden a statistically-significant electability advantage over his top competitors, I'll leave you with this opposite finding from the latest NBC/WSJ survey. Not a great spot for the incumbent:
NBC/WSJ poll on 2020 general, since we're 1 year out:
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) November 3, 2019
Biden 50%, Trump 41%
Warren 50%, Trump 42%
46% of voters are certain to vote AGAINST Trump, 34% are certain to vote FOR him, and 17% say they might vote either way depending on nominee
Registered voters, +/- 3.7%
Again, consider these numbers compared to the stark NYT data from battlegrounds we discussed yesterday. The general election is in 364 days.
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