Former Vice President Joe Biden jumped into the 2020 Democratic presidential primary late last week, and his rollout has been a mixed bag, in my view. His team committed a number of unforced errors, and he's floundered on some topics (with even more explanations and apologies still underway), but he hit his first-day fundraising mark, and has already collected a bevy of endorsements. His best news yet, however, comes directly from primary voters. In two national polls, Biden has bounced out to a sizable lead over the rest of the field, clearly and undeniably expanding the consistent but fairly modest advantage he held prior to formally entering the race. This Morning Consult poll garnered a fair amount of attention late last night:
Biden jumps 6 points in new Morning Consult weekly Dem WH poll:
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) April 30, 2019
Biden 36% (+6 from last week)
Sanders 22% (-2)
Warren 9% (+2)
Buttigieg 8% (-1)
Harris 7% (-1)
O’Rourke 5% (-1)
Booker 3% (-1)
Klobuchar 2% (—)
Yang 2% (—)https://t.co/pdkofdXu7Q
But was that data set an outlier? As Leah noted this morning, a fresh CNN poll suggests not:
New 2020 @CNN poll just out:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 30, 2019
Biden 39%
Sanders 15%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 7%
O’Rourke 6%
Harris 5%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Castro 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Inslee 1%
Swalwell 1%
Williamson 1%
Yang 1%
de Blasio <1%
Ryan <1%
Bennet 0%
Delaney 0%
Hickenlooper 0%
Messam 0%
Moulton 0%
That's two national surveys showing Biden soaring into the mid-to-high 30's (no small achievement in a 20-person field), with second-place Bernie hovering in the teens or low-20's. Biden's big boom is fueled by non-white voters -- notably, he's winning a near-majority of black women:
New @CNN 2020 poll by race:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 30, 2019
Among whites:
Biden 29%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Warren 8%
Harris 6%
O’Rourke 6%
Among non-whites:
Biden 50%
Sanders 14%
Warren 7%
Harris 4%
O'Rourke 4%
Buttigieg 3%
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It's extremely early. Biden has been in the race for less than one week. Things change. Debates happen. Gaffes occur. Events shift. Biden is now a declared candidate, but how he'll perform over the coming months is still a very open question. We won't even see this field hold its first debates for about two months, so any definitive declarations about what this polling movement does, or does not, mean is amusingly premature. But there is no disputing that this represents very welcome news for Team Biden. He was the slight frontrunner before getting in, and has since vaulted into clear frontrunner status. For now. This is an interesting point about the conventional wisdom surrounding Uncle Joe's long-rumored campaign:
It seems very possible given his age and past false starts that a chunk of Dem voters was holding back and waiting to see if Biden actually got in. But they liked him a lot, and now that it’s real, well...
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) April 30, 2019
Quasi-counterpoint (minus Hillary's glaring likability problem):
I am not very savvy, but I think the theory was that just as Hillary took on water over the course of the primary, so would Biden — many of the same issues on his record. https://t.co/9ADVTK6ugE
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) April 30, 2019
The Democratic field has mostly been playing patty-cake amongst themselves for the time being, but that was never going to last. And a certain somebody is obviously determined to launch torpedoes to help along the process of Biden taking on water:
Bernie on @ac360 last night: "I helped lead the fight against NAFTA; [Biden] voted for NAFTA. I helped lead the fight against [permanent normal trade relations] w/ China; he voted for it. I strongly opposed TPP; he supported it. I voted against the war in Iraq; he voted for it."
— Ruby Cramer (@rubycramer) April 30, 2019
Biden yesterday joined a number of his fellow Democrats in calling for a huge tax increase on 91 percent of middle class families by repealing the Trump tax cuts. This is significant attack fodder for the GOP.
UPDATE - Three's a trend:
New Qpac national Dem poll makes it three-for-three today showing a giant Biden bump:
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) April 30, 2019
Biden 38%
Warren 12%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 10%
Harris 8%
O’Rourke 5%
Booker 2%https://t.co/rmDgSXkdcm
And check out these numbers in Bernie's backyard, where the Vermont socialist has been leading:
New 2020 Suffolk/Globe poll in New Hampshire:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 30, 2019
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 12%
Sanders 12%
Warren 8%
Harris 6%
Booker 3%
O'Rourke 3%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Yang 1%
Castro <1%
Gillibrand <1%
Hickenlooper <1%
Messam <1%
Moulton <1%
Ryan <1%
Swalwell <1%
Williamson <1%
Inslee 0%
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