Polls: Plurality of Americans Support GOP Tax Bill, Economic Confidence Soars

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 @guypbenson
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Posted: Dec 20, 2017 1:35 PM
Polls: Plurality of Americans Support GOP Tax Bill, Economic Confidence Soars

In the lead-up to final passage, I've been harping on how a number of recent polls have measured strong public opposition to the Republican tax reform bill, with majorities of respondents reaching the false conclusion that they'll get hit with a tax increase -- when, in fact, 80 percent of them will get a tax cut, and less than five percent will see a bump in their tax liability.  So I feel like I owe it to you to share some better news, as circumstances permit.  A new national survey from Politico finds that a nine-point plurality supports the GOP plan (44/35), with respondents (correctly) predicting by substantial margins that the proposal will generally help the US economy, corporations, small businesses, and high income families.  Where the numbers get dicier -- producing approximately even splits are on the legislation's impact on middle- and lower-income taxpayers, as well as 'people like you:'


Those data points aren't great, but they're much better than other polling we've seen recently.  The Politico survey may prove to be an outlier, but its findings are still worth flagging.  As for the empirical realities behind those perceptions, nonpartisan data demonstrates that middle class taxpayers benefit disproportionately from the tax cuts, and millions of American workers will benefit from the tax overhaul's economic affects.  The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation and Tax Foundation each project higher GDP growth (and more jobs) under the plan, though their predictions diverge on how sweeping and enduring those positive outcomes would be.  These signals from manufacturers are certainly a welcome sign, however:


Meanwhile, the latest CNBC poll shows a significant surge in economic optimism among Americans, with President Trump's approval rating ticking up several points as a result:

American optimism on the economy is reaching new heights and President Donald Trump's approval ratings look to be benefiting, at least somewhat. The CNBC All-American Economic Survey found that for the first time in at least 11 years, more than half of respondents to the survey rated the economy as good or excellent, while a near record 41 percent expected the economy to improve in the next year.  "We're not measuring a marginal change in the economy, we're measuring a different economy,'' said Public Opinion Strategies' Micah Roberts...The survey found that 42 percent of Americans expect their wages to rise in the next year, and 41 percent of homeowners see their home values going up, the highest level recorded since 2007...Trump's approval rating has mostly been disconnected from the better economic data but that could be changing. With gross domestic product rising strongly the past two quarters and the unemployment rate remaining low, Trump's approval rating has jumped. Forty-two percent in the poll approve of the job Trump is doing as president, up 4 points from the September survey, while 49 percent disapprove, down 3 points...The president's approval numbers are substantially better on the economy. Forty-seven percent approve of his handling of the economy, up 4 points from September, while 43 percent disapprove, up 2 points. For the first time during the Trump presidency, more than half of independents approved of the president's economic stewardship.

This survey found approval for the GOP tax plan underwater at (26/38), but a whopping 36 percent said they don't know enough about the issue, or aren't sure. Republicans would be wise to conduct an all-out messaging blitz because the facts are on their side -- and the side of the vast majority of the American people.  Quinnipiac University's pollster has also detected record-setting economic outlook positivity across the country, yet a majority of respondents in that same survey disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy.  Democrats also lead by double digits on the generic Congressional ballot, representing the latest brutal finding on that front for the GOP.  If these numbers are even close to accurate ten months from now (pay close attention to the senior citizen demographic...gulp), Democrats will be riding their own 2010-style backlash midterm wave.  I'll leave you with sub-moronic chanting from insufferable protesters prior to yesterday's House vote on the Republican tax bill:


These people are beyond persuasion (here's my analysis of the "tax reform kills people!" insanity), but perhaps many voters are not -- and maybe their minds will be more open to GOP arguments once they realize their taxes have gone down, not up.  Rather than giving the final word to the unhinged mob, here's House Speaker Paul Ryan making his factual closing argument for the tax reform legislation (skip ahead to the 18:30 mark).  Onto the White House: