Rollercoaster: New Polls Show Hillary Ahead in FL, NC, OH

Posted: Sep 26, 2016 7:55 PM

If you're a Trump supporter, today's early release of national and state polls had you riding high. But in the interests of balance, here's an updated set of numbers for you to flippantly dismiss as rigged, biased MSM-concocted rubbish. First, a word of caution: Reuters/Ipsos takes a large national sample, then breaks out state-by-state subsamples that occasionally produce weird outliers -- like giving Trump the lead in Vermont, or showing a virtually tied race in Oregon. They are not scientific statewide polls. With that chunk of salt in place, here are some Trump-positive results from the poll (which also shows him leading comfortably in Iowa, and edging ahead in Colorado -- neither of which is an outlier):

Celebrate good times, Trump Train. Until you see these findings, that is:

If she's up in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Virginia, this race is over.  Feel free to discard all of the results from this specific survey based on its unusual methodology, but there are a few more freshly-released polls that lend some credence to Reuters' data.  Namely, here is a Chamber of Commerce poll showing Hillary slightly ahead in Florida.  And the first statewide survey in awhile giving her the edge in Ohio.  And another one giving her a razor-thin advantage in North Carolina.  And this one, confirming a tight contest in typically-red Arizona:

Since we're getting excruciatingly close to tonight's main event, we might as well play "pick your poll."  There are plenty of stats for loyalists on each side to latch onto as they bite their nails down to the nub awaiting 9pm ET.  Because starting tomorrow, none of these polls will matter anymore.  Only post-debate surveys will have any significance -- and we don't have any reliable information on that front for days.  Pre-date polls: Post 'em while you got 'em.  I'll leave you with the counterweight to this morning's Bloomberg's splashy "Trump is ahead!" national poll.  Over to you, Monmouth:

And now, we wait.