If you're a Trump supporter, today's early release of national and state polls had you riding high. But in the interests of balance, here's an updated set of numbers for you to flippantly dismiss as rigged, biased MSM-concocted rubbish. First, a word of caution: Reuters/Ipsos takes a large national sample, then breaks out state-by-state subsamples that occasionally produce weird outliers -- like giving Trump the lead in Vermont, or showing a virtually tied race in Oregon. They are not scientific statewide polls. With that chunk of salt in place, here are some Trump-positive results from the poll (which also shows him leading comfortably in Iowa, and edging ahead in Colorado -- neither of which is an outlier):
#NEW Reuters/Ipsos Polls:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 26, 2016
Pennsylvania:
Trump 46 (Tie)
Clinton 46
Wisconsin:
Trump 41 (Tie)
Clinton 41
Nevada:
Clinton 45 (Tie)
Trump 45
Celebrate good times, Trump Train. Until you see these findings, that is:
#NEW Reuters/Ipsos Polls:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 26, 2016
North Carolina:
Clinton 49 (+6)
Trump 43#Florida:
Clinton 49 (+4)
Trump 45#Ohio:
Clinton 46 (+3)
Trump 43
If she's up in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Virginia, this race is over. Feel free to discard all of the results from this specific survey based on its unusual methodology, but there are a few more freshly-released polls that lend some credence to Reuters' data. Namely, here is a Chamber of Commerce poll showing Hillary slightly ahead in Florida. And the first statewide survey in awhile giving her the edge in Ohio. And another one giving her a razor-thin advantage in North Carolina. And this one, confirming a tight contest in typically-red Arizona:
NEW Arizona presidential poll per @Data_Orbital:
— BrahmResnik (@brahmresnik) September 26, 2016
Trump 40%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 9%
Margin of error 4.12%https://t.co/ABC4QURnoV
Since we're getting excruciatingly close to tonight's main event, we might as well play "pick your poll." There are plenty of stats for loyalists on each side to latch onto as they bite their nails down to the nub awaiting 9pm ET. Because starting tomorrow, none of these polls will matter anymore. Only post-debate surveys will have any significance -- and we don't have any reliable information on that front for days. Pre-date polls: Post 'em while you got 'em. I'll leave you with the counterweight to this morning's Bloomberg's splashy "Trump is ahead!" national poll. Over to you, Monmouth:
Monmouth U
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) September 26, 2016
Likely voters nationally
Clinton 46%
Trump’s 42%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%
And now, we wait.
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