NBC/WSJ Poll: Trump Running Away with Indiana

Posted: May 02, 2016 10:30 AM

On Friday, we expressed skepticism over a new poll showing Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump by 16 points in the Hoosier State, the only public survey showing the Texan ahead. Yesterday, a fresh NBC/WSJ/Marist poll found nearly the exact opposite result, with the controversial billionaire up by double digits. Trump's RCP average lead has swelled to more than four points; he appears to be on the verge of defeating Cruz in what virtually everyone agrees is a must-win state for the conservative Senator's campaign:

On Megyn Kelly's show Friday evening, I concluded that if Cruz loses Indiana tomorrow, that would basically be "all she wrote" for the GOP primary. Even if that new poll is off by ten points, this race will effectively end when the Indiana victor is declared tomorrow evening -- though Cruz would likely fight all the way through June 7.  The Cruz campaign is out with a new television ad in the state, casting Trump and Clinton as 'two sides of the same coin' and a pair of 'big government liberals:'

Trump does support raising taxes, and has recently attacked conservative leaders for refusing to do so.  He has also supported sweeping gun control legislation in the past, part and parcel of his long history of holding lefty views on virtually every issue.  He was -- and remains to this day -- a Statist, who openly  doesn't care about conservatism or the principle of limiting the scope and power of government.  Cruz's ad may be most off-base on the transgender bathroom issue, about which the Senator has been dinged by fact-checkers over his characterizations of that kerfuffle.  Trump has adopted more of a 'who cares, is this really a problem in need of a law?' approach, echoing Charles Krauthammer and others.  Incidentally, the same poll finds the Mitch McConnell and Chamber of Commerce-backed candidate holding a commanding lead over a conservative challenger.  Much of the moderate 'establishment' also backs Trump, who is deeply tied to the current status quo system.  They're winning.