With less than a week to go before Election Day, Republican Congressman Mark Kirk and Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias remain in a close battle for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat.The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in Illinois shows Kirk picking up 46% of the vote, while Giannoulias draws support from 42%. Five percent (5%) like Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones.
This would be welcome news even as an isolated result; but it's not. Kirk has led in every recent poll, including surveys from the Chicago Tribune, Mason-Dixon, PPP/Daily Kos, and Fox News. If, and that's a big if, this clear trend doesn't reverse itself over the next five-plus days, Barack Obama's old Senate seat will fall into Republican hands on November 2nd -- the symbolism of which would speak for itself.
The same general analysis applies to Sharron Angle's poll position. CNN/Time's new numbers show Angle commanding a four-point lead over Harry Reid, 49 percent to 45 percent. I've been suspicious of that polling outfit throughout this cycle, but these latest numbers align with the overall trend.