Poll: Romney Poised to Take a Majority in Nevada

Posted: Feb 03, 2012 10:50 AM

Nevada's caucus tomorrow is shaping up to be a good old-fashioned blowout for Mitt Romney -- a new PPP poll has him sitting' pretty with 50 percent of likely caucus-goers' votes. Newt's campaign is purportedly looking pretty rough and tumble in the Silver State, but it looks like even a fantastic, out-of-this-world (heh) campaign wouldn't help to change the state's tune:

Mitt Romney is headed for a dominant victory in Nevada on Saturday.  PPP finds him polling at 50% to 25% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, and 8% for Rick Santorum.

Certainly in Nevada the Mormon vote will get a lot of attention and Romney leads Paul 78-14 with that group, which we project to account for 20% of the vote. But Romney's dominance in Nevada goes well beyond that. He's winning voters describing as 'very conservative,' a group he's had huge amount of trouble with in other states, by a 43-34 margin over Gingrich. He's also winning men, women, Hispanics, whites, and every age group that we track. This will be a pretty thorough victory for him.

The bad news for Gingrich isn't just that's headed for a distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him, with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. That's an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels.