New Poll Shows Cuomo Would Win in a Two-Way Race Against Mamdani

Dmitri Bolt | November 03, 2025 6:00 PM

In a new bombshell poll, former Governor Andrew Cuomo would win in a head-to-head race with Mamdani.

According to a new Atlas Intel survey released Monday afternoon, Zohran Mamdani still leads the race with 43.9 percent support, while Cuomo trails with 39.4 percent and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa with 15.5 percent. Roughly one percent of those surveyed remain undecided.

In a hypothetical race where Sliwa drops out, Cuomo would lead Mamdani 49.7 percent to 44.1 percent.

The poll surveyed 2,400 potential voters over a two-day period last week, on Friday and Sunday, with a margin of error of around two percentage points.

📊FINAL ATLAS POLL

2025 NYC Mayoral Election

Mamdani (D) leads with 43.9% of the vote (+3.3 since Oct. 30), while Cuomo (I) trails close behind at 39.4% (+5.4 since Oct. 30). With Sliwa (R) dropping 8.6pp, the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo decreased to 4.5pp. pic.twitter.com/cP1FZqpoAH
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2025

However, the poll overestimates the Republican and Independent vote, while underestimating Democratic voters. In early voting, Democrats account for 73 percent, Republicans 11 percent, and independents 15 percent. The survey has Democrats at only 59 percent, Republicans at 19 percent, and independents at almost 22 percent.

The top three issues for New Yorkers remain inflation/cost of living, housing affordability, and crime in that order. While Mamdani and Cuomo have made their focus affordability, Sliwa maintains that the most important issue is crime. While that issue has historically been a winning one, people can imagine a world in which affordability quickly outpaces that in major U.S. cities. Republicans will soon need to make economic policy the centerpiece of their campaign and expand their message beyond simply cutting taxes.