The United States could see its first-ever population decline in 2025, according to a report by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).
Net international migration, both legal and illegal, could fall to as low as negative 525,000 this year. With just 519,000 births reported in 2024 by the U.S. Census, that would leave the nation facing its first population decline in 250 years, a drop of roughly 6,000 people.
New newsletter: SHRINKING AMERICA
— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) September 2, 2025
The US population could decline in 2025, for the first time on record—something demographers didn't think would happen for decades.
The math is simple. Population growth has 2 sources: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net immigration… pic.twitter.com/iANd7GootK
According to AEI’s projection, immigration is expected to drop from about 2.8 million to somewhere between 115,000 and negative 525,000, resulting in, even at the higher end, a 96 percent decline in international immigration. This is unheard of in American history.
Even throughout some of the most turbulent times in American history, including the American Civil War, World War II, and even the COVID-19 pandemic, when travel was restricted, the US population has continually grown.
The number of immigrants in general has already fallen to a 50-year low, as a result of the first six months of Trump's second term as President, and his crackdown on illegal immigration. Total immigration declined by 1.4 million people in the first half of 2025, according to the Pew Research Center.
This contributes to the broader issue of population decline, as the fertility rate in America is below the replacement rate, at about 1.6 children per woman. Taken together, these trends suggest that the United States is entering uncharted demographic territory. A nation long defined by growth, from both immigration and natural increase, is now confronting the possibility of total decline. The implications reach far beyond simple statistics; they point to a future of a shrinking workforce, increased pressure on entitlement programs, and the prospect of a very different American future.
Editor's Note: President Trump is leading America into the "Golden Age" as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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