According to a New York Times analysis of voter registration data, Democrats are losing voters by significant margins, as Republicans are becoming increasingly popular. This trend is occurring across blue states, red states, and battleground states.
New York Times: "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) August 20, 2025
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a… pic.twitter.com/gx94qL9EVP
The NYT looked at data from L2, a nonpartisan firm that compiles voter, consumer, and constituent data, which found that for the first time since 2018, Republicans gained more voters than Democrats in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost around 2.1 million registered voters in the 30 states that allow people to register under a political party and Washington, D.C.. Republicans gained 2.4 million.
There are still more registered Democrats than Republicans nationwide, but that’s partly because deep-blue states like California let voters register by party, while most red states, like Texas, don’t. Even so, the Times admitted the numbers were a bad sign, warning that “the trajectory is troublesome for Democrats, and there are growing tensions over what to do about it.”
In 2020, Democrats held an 11-point edge over Republicans. In 2024, that advantage fell by almost half, to only a 6-point advantage.
“I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this. There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year,” Michael Pruser, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, an election-analysis site, told the Times.
The biggest shift away from Democrats has come from men and younger voters, where the Left’s support has dropped the sharpest. And while both parties lose people to the growing ranks of independents, in recent years those defections have come largely from Democrats.
Maria Cardona, a Democrat party strategist and member of the Democratic National Committee, said that Democrats "fell asleep at the switch.”
Democrats once leaned on a network of nonprofits to register Black, Latino, and younger voters, groups that used to vote for their left-wing candidates. But since Trump’s election in 2024, that assumption no longer holds. As Cardona put it, “You can’t just register a young Latino or a young Black voter and assume that they’re going to know that it’s Democrats that have the best policies.”
From the Times: "Mr. Trump upended that calculation with the inroads he made with working-class nonwhite voters."
Democrats are in the process of reassessing their strategy moving forward. Increasingly, their approach involves leaning into the party’s progressive wing. Many within the party hope that a more direct leftward turn could generate a populist surge similar to the dynamic that propelled Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Only this time, populism would result in a socialist leader for the Democrats.
Editor's Note: President Trump is leading America into the "Golden Age" as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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