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Tipsheet

The Bunker That Could Decide the Future of the Middle East

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP

Israel has rained hellfire on Iran for the last four days, killing its Chief of Staff, Commander in Chief, Deputy Commander in Chief, and the Head of Intelligence for the Iranian Armed Forces, as well as the Commander of the Iranian Air Force. Not only has the Israel killed dozens of senior military officials, but it has also killed several of Iran's top nuclear scientists and significantly damaged multiple uranium enrichment facilities, as well as critical parts of their nuclear supply line. 

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However, Iran’s most heavily fortified enrichment facility, Fordow, buried deep within a mountain, remains unscathed, according to The Wall Street Journal. Neutralizing it completely is beyond the reach of conventional Israeli firepower. The most the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) would be able to do currently is bury the entrance under tons of rock, only stalling Iran's continued nuclear operations. To destroy it completely, Israel would require advanced U.S. bunker-buster munitions. So far, Washington has refused to say whether it will supply them.

'Israel thus far has targeted important parts of the Iranian nuclear program. But if you are worried about a nuclear breakout, Fordow is the game,' said Richard Nephew, who served as a negotiator with Iran during the Biden and Obama administrations.

Israel has made significant progress in stalling Iran's capabilities in producing a nuclear weapon, a possibility that strikes fear into the hearts of those around the globe, and especially for those in the region. If Iran were to create a nuclear weapon, conflict with their terror proxies would be instantly complicated, and an ally of China and Russia would become instantly more formidable.

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The IDF has destroyed 14,000 centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which are critical for enriching uranium. They have also destroyed two buildings integral to the creation of a nuclear weapon. One that converts solid uranium into its gaseous form, which is then fed into the centrifuges, and another that converts the enriched uranium into metal, which is used to create a nuclear warhead.

President Trump has said he knew of Israel's attack in advance and gave the operation a green light. He has said in recent days that he hopes the conflict will drive Iranian leadership back to the negotiating table, especially considering the death of several of Tehran's "hardliners". Iran is currently telling the United States that nothing but a phone call between the president and Tehran will pave the way back to negotiations.

Trump has declared that the United States will not directly intervene in the conflict, insisting that his administration’s goal is peace in the region. But this comes as Iran continued to stonewall all diplomatic efforts, refusing to negotiate with the U.S. over its nuclear enrichment program. Trump has also warned Iran not to make the mistake of attacking U.S. embassies or military installations in the region.

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As Tehran edges closer to a nuclear weapon, Israeli forces continue doing the hard work of holding the physical line.


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