Did Obama Lose His Convention Bounce?

Posted: Sep 13, 2012 11:07 AM

It appears that The One’s much-discussed “convention bounce” has indeed faded: Governor Mitt Romney now leads President Obama by one percentage point (for the first time in nearly a week), according to a new survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote.
Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

This is the first time in a week that Romney has held even a single-point advantage. See daily tracking history. Romney is now supported by 18% of white Democrats.

Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 49% and Obama 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.

It is also important to note that Republicans are slightly more enthusiastic about voting in November than Democrats:

Perhaps most significantly, Republicans are once again more engaged in the election than Democrats. Forty-nine percent (49%) of GOP voters are following the race on a daily basis. Among Democrats, just 42% are that interested. Throughout 2012, Republicans have consistently held the enthusiasm advantage. However, for a few days following the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the president’s party caught up to the GOP on this important measure of potential turnout.

The November elections are 54 days away. For months, we’ve written about how the outcome of the presidential horse-race will be determined -- in large part -- by the state of the American economy and whether or not Americans feel they are better off today than they were four years ago. That’s still true, of course. However, now that the United States is facing what can only be described as an international crisis -- and at least six Americans are dead in the Middle East, including a dedicated and courageous U.S. ambassador -- foreign policy will likely play a larger role in the November elections. Exit question: Is President Obama’s handling of the current crisis the reason why his polling numbers are beginning to slip? Or was this inevitable and to be expected?

Update - Townhall’s Poll Tracker average shows President Obama edging Mitt Romney by three percentage points.