Whoa: New Hampshire Might Turn Red Again

Posted: Oct 07, 2016 8:00 AM

The latest Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll out of New Hampshire is going to be alarming for the Hillary Clinton camp: her lead over Donald Trump, which was in the double-digits at the end of August, has dwindled to a measly two points. If this poll is correct, the Granite State is officially anybody's game.

Polls throughout August and September had Clinton at a slight, yet comfortable, lead over Trump. That has completely vanished.

Trump's surge in New Hampshire likely comes from people who formerly supported Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson. Other than his home state of New Mexico, Johnson had his best poll numbers in New Hampshire. In recent weeks, Johnson's support has plummeted from 13 percent to five percent following his high-profile flubs on foreign policy and other basic knowledge.

The Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll surveyed New Hampshire likely voters earlier this week and found Clinton with a slim lead over Trump, 44 percent to 42 percent. That’s well within the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percent.

To date, Trump has never led a general election poll in the Granite State. In the last two months, Clinton has maintained a 6 percent advantage in state polls, according to an average calculated by RealClearPolitics. In those same polls, Libertairan nominee Gary Johnson received support, on average, from nearly 13 percent, making New Hampshire his second strongest state next to his home of New Mexico.

But after a number of foreign policy gaffes and his exclusion from the first presidential debate, Johnson’s support has decreased to 5 percent in the new Granite State survey.

The last time New Hampshire's Electoral College votes went to the Republican presidential candidate was in the 2000 election. Barack Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008 and by five points in 2012.