Right now, Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota and Wisconsin are either leaning Republican or solid Republican. That means Republicans have to win 6 of the 7 following toss up seats: California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia.
IF the wave is big enough, they will do it. I think Buck will take Colorado, Kirk in Illinois. Republicans are outpacing Democrats in Nevada's early voting, and traditionally turn out in higher numbers than Dems in Nevada on election day, so Sharron Angle is in good shape. Toomey will win in Pennsylvania, I believe.
That leaves Washington, West Virginia and California -- and the GOP needs two out of three. Polls have Fiorina slightly behind, but California has been so monolithically liberal for so long, pollsters may well not know how to weight the electorate for a year like this one (the optimistic polls for Boxer weight the electorate as though it was the big Dem year of 2008 -- come on!). Rossi is now outpacing Patty Murray in the polls, a good sign. In West Virginia, Manchin has run slightly ahead, but voters may still want to send a message to Obama and the Democrats (and keep their governor at the same time).
For the most part, weather will not be a factor.
Yes, the GOP may well take the Senate -- or fall short by one or two. But it's a magnificent showing, either way.
Finally, remember to vote! Not out of anger, not out of fear. The greatest things are accomplished out of love -- here, love of country. We are setting some wrongs right and getting our beloved USA back on track. Say a prayer and then vote.