Can we please take Iowa off the toss-up list? It was never really a battleground state. It’s not in play. And the latest Des Moines Register poll shows that with President Trump leading Joe Biden by a solid seven points. If Trump wins here, and I think he will, Sen. Joni Ernst’s re-election is also secured (via Des Moines Register) [emphasis mine]:
Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.
The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren't sure and 5% don't want to say for whom they will vote.
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., said while men are more likely to support Trump and women to support Biden, the gender gap has narrowed, and independents have returned to supporting the president, a group he won in 2016.
"The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing," she said. "There's a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016."
Now, yes, the state had the two men in a 47-47 tie back in September, but even then, I never thought this state was up for grabs. Biden is not Barack Obama. Second, even if that was the case, the former VP has collapsed here. What’s more is that this poll forecasted Trump’s Midwest sweep in 2016, as noted by The New York Times’ Nate Cohn. Now granted, his subsequent tweets tried to throw cold water on the poll. It’s hilarious how the movement toward Trump has a) caused Democrats to panic, b) caused the media to panic, and c) caused pollsters to now say that skepticism should be factored into these surveys.
Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2020
That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweephttps://t.co/bIOVhFRaQh
In Florida, Democrats are bleeding in their early voting advantage. In Pennsylvania, there seems to be a late surge for Trump as well, causing some panic there as well. Michael Moore has been going berserk over Michigan, aptly noting that the Trump vote is always undercounted.
We’ll find out soon enough, but a Rust Belt sweep right now wouldn’t shock me.