CNN/WMUR Poll: New Hampshire Feeling the Bern, With Trump On Top–But Rubio Surging

Matt Vespa
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Posted: Feb 04, 2016 8:20 PM
CNN/WMUR Poll: New Hampshire Feeling the Bern, With Trump On Top–But Rubio Surging

As Katie reported earlier today, a new Public Policy Poll had Trump taking a nosedive following his defeat in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday night. The billionaire magnate was still in the lead, albeit after dropping nine-points. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) surged to tie Cruz for second (25/21/21). Now, a new CNN/WMUR poll released just hors before tonight’s Democratic debate shows Sanders leading Clinton by a two-to-one margin, with the Donald still leading the field but could be forced to defend himself from a rising Rubio who took second place in the poll. Cruz and Kasich are in a virtual tie for third (via CNN):

Behind Trump's field-leading 29% support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio climbs to second place with 18% following his strong third place finish in Iowa, followed by Ted Cruz (13%) and John Kasich (12%) in a near-tie for third. Jeb Bush holds fifth place at 10%, a hair behind Cruz and Kasich, with Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina well behind at 4% each. The fight for second place between Cruz, Rubio and Kasich remains within the survey's margin of sampling error.

The poll was conducted entirely after the Iowa caucuses.

[…]

Trump has also been ruled out by more likely voters than any other Republican in the field, 37% say they would never vote for him. Cruz is second on this score, with 13% saying they would never vote for him, followed by Bush at 7%.

There’s a lot of room for candidate to make their last minute pitches New Hampshire heads to the polls on February 9. Forty-one percent of Granite Staters have made up their minds come Election Day, with 25 percent leaning towards someone. Yet, 34 percent are still undecided. But given how strong Marco and Cruz did during the Iowa Caucuses– it could be the nudge these fence sitters need to pick who they feel should be the GOP nominee this year.

As for the Democrats, it’s, uh, looks pretty much locked for Sanders:

Sanders stands at 61% support, up slightly from the 57% he held in a late January CNN/WMUR poll conducted before he and Clinton divided Iowa caucusgoers almost evenly on Monday night. Clinton holds 30%, down a tick from the 34% she held before the caucuses. Both changes are within the poll's margin of sampling error.

The results reflect interviews conducted during the first two and a half days of a tracking poll that will ultimately wrap together three nights worth of interviews, but give the first look at how the race is shaping up following Monday night's caucuses in Iowa.

Democratic voters are also more decisive, with 64 percent knowing whom they will vote for next Tuesday; just 17 percent are in the undecided category.