Obamacare's Success Depends on Where You Live

Posted: May 03, 2014 2:00 PM

A new report out from Avalere Health estimates the success of Obamacare exchanges by state enrollments. The bottom line: Obamacare's sign-up success largely depends on where you live. Some states are doing great when it comes to signing people up for Obamacare. Some... not so much:

As Peter Suderman reports:

According to Avalere, 22 states met or exceeded enrollment expectations, with the biggest overages appearing in Florida and California, which even after attrition for non-payment hit 199 and 186 percent of their projected sign-ups, respectively. Another four states came reasonably close to hitting their estimates, reaching at least 90 percent of their projected total.

And here's the map that Avalere has come up with. Florida and California, for example, have both signed up more than 200% of their enrollment projections. Places like New York, on the other hand - and New York is one of the states with one of the most broken pre-Obamacare health systems - failed to even sign up half of the people they hoped to.


What will be interesting is to see how premiums either rise or fall in some of these states. Signing up a ton of healthy people would make California's premiums fall - but if they overshot enrollment by signing up sick people, premiums will skyrocket. The reverse is true in New York - if it turns out that very few people are truly uninsurable, premiums will drop. So this isn't necessarily a statement on the workability of Obamacare. But it is a data point for how people estimated the health of the pre-Obamacare insurance market.