New Poll: No, Charlie Baker Is Not Up by 9 Points in MA

Daniel Doherty
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Posted: Oct 28, 2014 7:00 PM
New Poll: No, Charlie Baker Is Not Up by 9 Points in MA
This enticing poll last week was almost too good to be true, and it was. After all, a New Umass Lowell/7 News survey throws a sopping wet blanket on the idea that Republican Charlie Baker is routing his opponent one week before Election Day.

He's not. The race is actually kind of close:

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Or…is it? Consider, for instance, this revealing cross-tab:

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Among likely voters, Charlie Baker is dominating Republicans, boasting a 40 point advantage among Independents (by far the biggest voting bloc in the state), and peeling off a plurality of Democrats (for Massachusetts, that is). My gut reaction, then, is if he’s siphoning off so many votes, how has he not opened up a much safer lead?

Answer: Welcome to Massachusetts.

Only in Massachusetts, for example, would the president’s approval ratings be higher than 50 percent and above water.

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Nationally, he fares much much worse. On the other hand, not only does Charlie Baker have lower disapproval numbers than his opponent (see above), but he is also “personally more likable”:

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Her 18-digit deficit on this question is devastating. It is also one reason why a Republican, like Baker, could defeat her in a state that reliably votes for Democrats.