Change: Cook Political Report Adjusts Rankings, Says NH Senate Race a “Toss Up”

Posted: Oct 17, 2014 1:00 PM

Scott Brown is staging a late-game comeback in New Hampshire and the analysts at the Cook Political Report have taken notice.

Even though Scott Brown has been trailing for months in the polls, a couple of new surveys show he’s nipping at Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) heels. Perhaps in part because he's become more visible in recent weeks, or perhaps because national security issues are starting to take center stage, the analysts believe Brown is now a formidable candidate. From their write-up:

Given that Shaheen’s lead has narrowed to the low- to mid-single digits, the contest is moving to the Toss Up column. It is worth noting, though, that she is closer to the 50-percent mark than the other Democratic incumbents in the Toss Up column, which gives her a bit of an edge in the end.

Shaheen is still probably the nominal front-runner in this contest. But her lead is now, at best, razor-thin.

As a side note, I will be on the ground covering the Shaheen/Brown debate next Tuesday night in Concord, New Hampshire. Meet the Press anchor Chuck Todd will moderate. Hopefully, it will give Brown more exposure (in a positive way) before voters head to the polls.

Completely unrelated, but I’ll leave you with this anyway: a new Boston Globe survey shows the Massachusetts governor’s race is surprisingly tight and only getting tighter:

[Coakley] and Baker are tied at 41 percent in the poll, a change from last week when Coakley led by 5 points. The survey, in addition to tracking the governor’s race, drilled down into voters’ views of the governor’s tenure as he prepares to leave office after two terms.

The results found Patrick, while still popular, has some dents in his political profile.

This could be hurting her, too.