Why Republicans Should Enjoy This Wave While They Can

Conn Carroll
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Posted: Nov 05, 2014 9:15 AM
Why Republicans Should Enjoy This Wave While They Can

Republicans have many reasons to celebrate this morning. After absolutely crushing the Democrats Tuesday, the party controls 30 governorships, 54 Senate seats, and more than 245 House seats, more than they have ever held in the history of the country.

But looking ahead to 2016, the Republicans have not gained much ground. 

If you compare the 2014 exit polls to the 2012 exit polls, yes, the Republicans did much better with almost every demographic. 

In 2012, voters aged 18-29 went 60 percent to 37 percent for Obama. In 2014, Republicans held Democrats to a 54 percent to 43 percent margin.

in 2012, Latino voters broke 71 percent to 27 percent for Obama. In 2014, Republicans held Democrats to a 63 percent to 35 percent margin.

In 2012, Obama won those making less than $50,000 60 percent to 38 percent. In 2014, Republicans held Democrats to a 55 Percent to 43 percent margin.

But if compare the 2014 exit polls to the 2010 exit polls, the Republicans are treading water.

In 2010, Republicans lost 18-29 year olds 55 percent to 42 percent.

In 2010, Republicans lost Latinos 60 percent to 38 percent.

In 2010, Republicans lost those making less than $50,000 54 percent to 43 percent.

Except for Asians, where Republican went from down 58/40 in 2010 to almost even 50/49 in 2014, the Republican 2014 margins among all demographics are the mirror image of their 2010 results.

So, yes, the Obama coalition is fraying. Obama did far worse among almost all demographics in 2012 than he did in 2008. There is little evidence that Obama voters will ever turnout for another Democrat at the same rate they did for Obama.

But the 2014 Republican wave has every likelihood of receding by 2016 as the 2010 wave did by 2014. If they are going to win in 2016, they are going to need a much better candidate than the one they fielded in 2012.