Marquette University released a new poll yesterday, and its fantastic news for the Tom Tiffany campaign. The poll shows Tiffany just one point behind Democrat and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, and shows that Crowley's unfavorables have gotten worse since the start of the general election race. Among likely voters, Tiffany only trails Crowley by three, with five percent of voters undecided.
NEW WISCONSIN GUBERNATORIAL POLL
— Jason Calvi (@JasonCalvi) September 30, 2026
LIKELY
David Crowley: 49%
Tom Tiffany: 46%
Undecided: 5%
-(margin of error: +/-4.8%)
REGISTERED
David Crowley: 46%
Tom Tiffany: 45%
Undecided: 9%
-(margin of error: +/-4.3%)
~Marquette Law School Poll
The momentum favors Tiffany.
Tiffany gained ground since August. Registered voters are a 1-point race. Five weeks out, this is a toss-up
— The Heartland Post (@HeartlandPostWI) September 30, 2026
Get the details of the most recent Marquette Poll here: https://t.co/yf6DvT9s1x pic.twitter.com/zabWYCt1u0
Marquette’s own August survey had Crowley up 49 to 44 among likely voters and dead even at 44 apiece among registered voters. Crowley did not grow. Tiffany did. Tiffany picked up 2 points with likely voters and 1 point with registered voters. The undecided pie shrank. That is movement toward the GOP nominee after a month of tax ads, crime spots, and Crowley lagging in fundraising numbers, spending his time in California and Washington DC. Tiffany has been hitting Crowley’s Milwaukee County record: five property tax hikes, a near-doubling of the sales tax, a cake-cutting celebration after the vote, and Crowley’s line that a sales tax increase would not be “a burden.” Crowley spent this week defending a California fundraiser with Kamala Harris and declining to rule out another county tax increase before Election Day.
Crowley is not running away. Tiffany is not buried. With 34 days until Nov. 3, a 3-point likely-voter spread and a 1-point registered-voter spread are a signal for Tiffany’s team to lock in, not a reason to pop champagne in Milwaukee County.
Crowley's unfavorables jumped 15 points in a month, while his favorable rating fell by two.
NEW: Unfavorable views of Crowley increased 15 points from August to September, while his favorable rating declined by two points, according to @MULawPoll
— Kathryn Merck TV (@KathrynMerckTV) September 30, 2026
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable 44
Tiffany had very little change…
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 45%
This is part of why David Crowley was in D.C., begging national Democrats for money, and had a $20,000-a-plate fundraiser with Kamala Harris and Sean Penn.
Now you know why Crowley is scrambling to get more campaign cash… Tiffany’s ad blitz has drastically changed Crowley’s favorable/unfavorables. https://t.co/WkkcCyYKaZ
— Wisconsin’s Conservative Sponge (@wiz_political) September 30, 2026
Crowley cannot crack 50 percent with voters.
Crowley is plateauing and can't break 50 even in an environment that heavily favors Ds.
— Eric Bott (@EricJBott) September 30, 2026
Tiffany is rising.
It's time to put in the work and win! https://t.co/OKyMLugRAx
On the issues, Tiffany is trouncing Crowley 40-32, and more voters are calling Crowley "very liberal."
More people now call Crowley very liberal. On the issues, Tiffany beats him 40-32.
— The Heartland Post (@HeartlandPostWI) September 30, 2026
Get the full picture of where Crowley sits here: https://t.co/zTCmHoIEX2 pic.twitter.com/Quq65pyDoQ
As this writer has said all along, outside of Milwaukee County, the city of Milwaukee and the county are very unpopular with 70 other counties, and deep-blue Dane County tolerates it. But the rest of the state sees Milwaukee as a tax-sucking, crime-ridden nightmare, and they're tired of sending millions of state tax dollars to prop it up while it runs roughshod over the rest of the state's politics. This is doubly true when the candidate is a Democrat. The party tried multiple times to get Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett elected governor and failed because of his Milwaukee ties. Part of why Scott Walker broke that trend was that the backlash to Democrat corruption in Milwaukee County was too big to ignore, and he came from a suburb.
And as we pointed out multiple times, Crowley's tax-and-spend record is against him. He's a radical who supports the socialist policies of Francesca Hong, and even likely violated the Civil Rights Act and Constitution by passing a county budget that explicitly discriminated against certain county employees.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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