With weeks to go before the midterms, a new Michigan poll by McLaughlin & Associates shows Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed deadlocked in one of the nation's most closely watched Senate races.
The poll, conducted September 21-23 for the Mike Rogers Super PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fund (GLCF), shows that in a generic ballot, Democrats lead over Republicans 50-47. However, Mike Rogers is tied with El-Sayed at 49-49, with just two percent of voters remaining undecided. It surveyed 600 likely Michigan general election voters, with a four-point margin of error.
Other polling has shown the same trend for this race: very close polling. Emerson has El-Sayed up 48-46, Trafalgar has El-Sayed up 46-45, and the Washington Post/Schar has El-Sayed up 48-45 — all well within the margins of error. A Detroit News/WDIV poll shows Rogers ahead 46-44.
🚨SHOCKING: Mike Rogers LEADS Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race by 1.3 points.
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) September 27, 2026
Michigan - 2026 Senate
🟥Mike Rogers 44.4% (+1.3)
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 43.1%
See all MI Senate polls @Pollsmax.
If Rogers wins this November, he would be the first Republican Michigander… pic.twitter.com/pKSmJJmBWk
When you dig into the other questions on the poll, 46 percent approve of the job President Trump is doing, including 34 percent who approve of President Trump and his policies, and 11 percent who do not personally like the President but do like his policies. That latter group breaks heavily for Mike Rogers, 94 percent to six percent. Rogers' approval among those voters is also overwhelmingly positive, with 87 percent viewing Rogers favorably versus 13 percent unfavorably.
Rogers himself can capitalize on the popular Trump policies, including manufacturing, immigration, and stopping the Democrats' woke agenda.
The poll shows Mike Rogers has a very solid chance to beat Abdul El-Sayed in November. Not only is Rogers outperforming the generic ballot and President Trump's approval, but El-Sayed is also underperforming both.
This means the election will come down to turnout and who can drive their voters to the polls on November 3. Groups like Democrats for Rogers will play a key role in the election outcome. The group, which has vowed to put country over party, can help build a bipartisan coalition for Rogers by pointing to the Democrats' extremism, a strategy campaign workers have been using in get-out-the-vote efforts in the state. That might be effective; voters who responded to the poll said the two main reasons they object to voting for El-Sayed are that he is "untrustworthy and can't deliver on his promises he's making" and that he's "too radical and doesn't share my views."
Michigan is one of the most-watched and heavily contested Senate races in the country. Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat, is vacating the seat, giving Republicans a chance to pick up a much-needed win to maintain control of the Senate. Rogers ran for the Senate in 2024, when he came within three-tenths of a point of winning against Elissa Slotkin.
And just two years after coming within a fraction of a percentage point of winning a Senate seat, Mike Rogers is once again in the middle of an extremely tight Michigan Senate race. Despite a political environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot, and Trump remains slightly underwater with Michigan voters, this latest poll has Rogers running even with El-Sayed. With only two percent of voters remaining undecided, the final weeks will test whether Rogers can hold Republican voters while winning enough support beyond the GOP coalition to give Republicans a much-needed pickup in November.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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