The Russian military build-up on Ukraine is not the training exercise Putin claims. At best, it’s a reconnaissance-in-force to determine Ukrainian defenses and western responses. Militarily, Ukraine is no match for the Russian war machine. President Biden’s January 25th comment, “There’s not gonna be any American forces moving into Ukraine” were the exact words Vladimir Putin wants to hear.
Further encouragement comes in Biden’s discussion of deploying 8,500 American service-members to Eastern Europe, more specifically, Poland. This is identical to World War II - American and British forces being ordered to stop on the western side of the Elbe River and wait for the Soviets to arrive after they conquered what became East Germany. The result was the Cold War, which continued until the Soviet Union collapsed.
For two people who grew up during the Cold War, Biden has learned a lot less than Putin, despite his 10 years of age seniority. The cause of the knowledge deficit is simple to explain: during Biden's 50 years in Washington, he was either involved in decisions by legislative consensus; or, for eight years, provided recommendations to a president whose management philosophy was to “lead from behind.”
Behind the Iron Curtain, Putin came to power through a far different route. His formative years were during Brezhnev's reign, who himself was a product of Stalinism. Combined with his inner character, Putin’s KGB experience taught him how to achieve his goals. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Putin left the KGB and started working local politics. Ten years later, he was Russian President. Today Putin is the most powerful person in Russia and one of its wealthiest. His opponents, whether outside the Kremlin or in London, become assassination targets.
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Totally out of touch with the consequences of his own gaffing, last week Biden announced to the world regarding Putin, “My guess is he will move in and I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not to do, etc.”
If this string of comments has caused any pause from Putin, it will only be because the Russian President needs to take time to figure out how it is possible to pack so many blunders into two consecutive sentences.
The free world does not expect the American president to tell the world what he guesses and thinks may happen. Right now the world is looking for a president to stand firm to foreign aggression. Publicly stating “My guess is” and “I think what you’re going to see” pales in comparison to President Kennedy’s firm stand during the Cuban Missile Crisis or President Reagan’s actions that were critical in collapsing the Soviet Union.
The “we end up having a fight” statement tells Putin that NATO members will be too busy fighting among themselves to figure out a response. Biden’s “minor incursion” is equally problematic. Once tanks roll across another nation’s border, it is an armed invasion and there’s nothing minor about it.
Not lost on Putin was the fact that Biden’s former boss, President Obama, drew “red lines” with disappearing ink. Such was the case during Putin’s build up to invading Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Putin accepted Obama’s challenge and, today, Crimea has been annexed into Russia. Biden is making it obvious that he inherited Obama’s disappearing ink pen.
Threats of economic sanctions are counterproductive. During the 20th century, the Russian people survived the Bolshevik Revolution, the Stalinist purges, the invasion of Germany, harvest failures and starvation, Gulags, and bitter winters. Biden needs to understand that Russians' ability to endure extreme hardship is part of their heritage.
Biden’s withdrawal-from-Afghanistan fiasco has already been one blow against NATO. Western Europe’s growing dependence on Russian oil is another. An unimpeded invasion of Ukraine and the installation of a puppet government would be a third. Ukraine will be just one more milestone of Putin’s self-set mission to rebuild the power once held by Moscow.
The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) ceased to exist in great part because of the failure to save South Vietnam from communist aggression. Putin is determined to make NATO equally ineffective.
Ukrainian citizens have worked hard to prove themselves an ally of Western Europe and the United States. Their military deployed with the American-led coalition into Iraq, and the nation has striven to become a member of NATO. It’s sad to realize that President Biden, instead of providing meaningful support to Ukraine, is ready to allow the country to once again become subordinate to Moscow.
Still out of touch with reality, this past week Biden claimed Putin is trying to find his place between America and China. Putin knows his place, and he certainly knows how to take advantage of his adversary’s weakness. The acquisition of Ukraine will provide Putin the territory he currently desires and send a clear message to all other countries that broke away from the Soviet Union – they will receive no support from a dysfunctional NATO; and, from Biden, only wandering rhetoric.
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