Forecasts for the Weeks of March 23 and 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 23

March 23

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.15

0.13

0.15

Existing Home Sales - February

5.010M

4.820

4.940

March 24

Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

-0.3

0.2

CPI Core

0.1

0.1

0.1

FHFA Housing Price Index - January=

0.5%

0.8

0.5

PMI Flash Manufacturing Index

55.1

55.1

54.7

New Home Sales - February

470K

480K

462

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1.5

0

2

March 25

Durable Good Orders - February

0.8%

2.8

0.7

March 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

300K

291

293

PMI Services Flash Index

57.1

57.1

57.0

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-0.5

1

0.00

March 27

GDP - Q4 (f)

2.3%

2.2

=A0

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

0.1

0.1

0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

92.2

91.2

92

Week of March 30<= /p>

March 30

Personal Income - February

0.3%

0.3

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

-0.2

0.2

Pending Home Sales Index - March

104.3

104.2

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-5.6

-11.2

March 31

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.8

0.9

Twenty City Y/Y

4.6

4.5

4.6

Chicago PMI - March

52.5

45.8

51.0

Consumer Confidence Index - March<= /p>

96.4

96.4

96.0

April 1

ADP Employment Report - March

230K

212

240

ISM (Mfg) - March

53.0

52.9

52.5

ISM Prices

35.0

35.0

Construction Spending - February

0.5%

-1.1

Auto Sales* - March

16.46M

16.23

16.7

Car Sales

7.33

7.23

Truck Sales

9.01

9.01

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

April 2

International Trade - February

-$42.8B

-41.8

-41.2

April 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

250K

295

248

Private

240

288

240

Manufacturing

11

8

13

Unemployment

5.5%

5.5

5.5

Average Workweek

34.6Hr

34.6

34.6

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.2

ISM Services - March

56.9

56.9

56.6

ISM Prices

49.7

49.7

ISM Business Activity

59.4

59.4

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist a= t the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.