Forecasts for the Weeks of March 23 and 30

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Mar 23, 2015 12:01 AM

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.





Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus


Week of March 23





March 23





Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.15

0.13

0.15


Existing Home Sales - February

5.010M

4.820

4.940







March 24





Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

-0.3

0.2


CPI Core

0.1

0.1

0.1







FHFA Housing Price Index - January=

0.5%

0.8

0.5


PMI Flash Manufacturing Index

55.1

55.1

54.7


New Home Sales - February

470K

480K

462


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1.5

0

2







March 25





Durable Good Orders - February

0.8%

2.8

0.7







March 26





Initial Unemployment Claims

300K

291

293


PMI Services Flash Index

57.1

57.1

57.0


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-0.5

1

0.00







March 27





GDP - Q4 (f)

2.3%

2.2

=A0


GDP Implicit Price Deflator

0.1

0.1

0.1







Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

92.2

91.2

92







Week of March 30<= /p>





March 30





Personal Income - February

0.3%

0.3

0.3


Personal Spending

0.3

-0.2

0.2







Pending Home Sales Index - March

104.3

104.2



Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-5.6

-11.2








March 31





Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.1



Twenty City M/M - SA

0.8

0.9



Twenty City Y/Y

4.6

4.5

4.6







Chicago PMI - March

52.5

45.8

51.0


Consumer Confidence Index - March<= /p>

96.4

96.4

96.0







April 1





ADP Employment Report - March

230K

212

240







ISM (Mfg) - March

53.0

52.9

52.5


ISM Prices

35.0

35.0








Construction Spending - February

0.5%

-1.1








Auto Sales* - March

16.46M

16.23

16.7


Car Sales

7.33

7.23



Truck Sales

9.01

9.01



*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence










April 2





International Trade - February

-$42.8B

-41.8

-41.2







April 3





Nonfarm Payrolls - March

250K

295

248


Private

240

288

240


Manufacturing

11

8

13


Unemployment

5.5%

5.5

5.5


Average Workweek

34.6Hr

34.6

34.6


Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.2







ISM Services - March

56.9

56.9

56.6


ISM Prices

49.7

49.7



ISM Business Activity

59.4

59.4








Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist a= t the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.