Forecasts for the Weeks of January 5 and 12

Peter Morici
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Posted: Jan 05, 2015 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of January 5
January 5
Auto Sales* - December 17.11M 17.20 16.9
Car Sales 8.08 8.18
Truck Sales 9.03 9.03
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
January 6
PMI Services Index - December
ISM Services - December 58.0 59.3 58.2
ISM Prices 54.5 54.5
ISM Business Activity 63.5 64.4
Factory Orders - November -0.3% -0.7 -0.5
Durable Goods Orders -0.7 -0.7
January 7
ADP Employment - December 205K 208 225
International Trade - November -$41.0B 43.4 -42.0
January 8
Initial Unemployment Claims 288K 298 290
Consumer Credit - November $15.0B 13.2 15.0
January 9
Nonfarm Payrolls - December 215K 321 240
Private 205 314 235
Manufacturing 10 28 15
Unemployment 5.8% 5.8 5.7
Average Workweek 34.5HR 0.4 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% 34.6 34.6
Wholesale Inventories - November 0.2% 0.4 0.3
Wholesale Sales 0.1 0.2
Week of January 12
January 13
Treasury Budget - December $24B -56.8 23.0
January 14
Export Prices - December -0.5% -1.0
Import Prices_ December -2.5 -1.5
Retail Sales - December 0.1% 1.0 0.1
Retail Sales, ex autos 0.1 0.8 0.2
Business Inventories - November 0.2% 0.2 0.2
January 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January 5.5 -3.58 4.5
Philadelphia Fed Index 20.0 24.5 20.0
Producer Price Index - December -0.3% -0.2% -0.3
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) 0.1 0.0 0.1
January 16
Industrial Production - December 0.1% 1.3 0.1
Capacity Utilization 80.0 80.1 80.0
Consumer Price Index - December -0.3% -0.3 -0.3
Core CPI 0.1 0.1 0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p) 93.6 93.6
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.