| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of January 5 | |||
| January 5 | |||
| Auto Sales* - December | 17.11M | 17.20 | 16.9 |
| Car Sales | 8.08 | 8.18 | |
| Truck Sales | 9.03 | 9.03 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| January 6 | |||
| PMI Services Index - December | |||
| ISM Services - December | 58.0 | 59.3 | 58.2 |
| ISM Prices | 54.5 | 54.5 | |
| ISM Business Activity | 63.5 | 64.4 | |
| Factory Orders - November | -0.3% | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Durable Goods Orders | -0.7 | -0.7 | |
| January 7 | |||
| ADP Employment - December | 205K | 208 | 225 |
| International Trade - November | -$41.0B | 43.4 | -42.0 |
| January 8 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 288K | 298 | 290 |
| Consumer Credit - November | $15.0B | 13.2 | 15.0 |
| January 9 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - December | 215K | 321 | 240 |
| Private | 205 | 314 | 235 |
| Manufacturing | 10 | 28 | 15 |
| Unemployment | 5.8% | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Average Workweek | 34.5HR | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| Wholesale Inventories - November | 0.2% | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Wholesale Sales | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Week of January 12 | |||
| January 13 | |||
| Treasury Budget - December | $24B | -56.8 | 23.0 |
| January 14 | |||
| Export Prices - December | -0.5% | -1.0 | |
| Import Prices_ December | -2.5 | -1.5 | |
| Retail Sales - December | 0.1% | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Retail Sales, ex autos | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Business Inventories - November | 0.2% | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| January 15 | |||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January | 5.5 | -3.58 | 4.5 |
| Philadelphia Fed Index | 20.0 | 24.5 | 20.0 |
| Producer Price Index - December | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.3 |
| Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| January 16 | |||
| Industrial Production - December | 0.1% | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Capacity Utilization | 80.0 | 80.1 | 80.0 |
| Consumer Price Index - December | -0.3% | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Core CPI | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p) | 93.6 | 93.6 | |
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. | |||
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