The smart set in Washington has been waiting for Donald Trump to endorse John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race the way a group of meteorologists waits for rain that they themselves predicted. They were quite certain it would arrive. They were only unsure about the exact timing.
First they said Trump would endorse Cornyn before the primary. Then they said it would happen right after the primary. Then they said it would happen after the runoff field was set.
Now it has been a week.
Still no endorsement.
At this point, the D.C. political class is staring at the sky, holding an umbrella, and wondering why they’re getting sunburned.
The original theory from the capital’s professional prognosticators was simple. Cornyn is a senior Republican senator. He has the blessing of leadership. He has spent decades doing the things senators do in Washington, which mostly involve attending meetings, issuing statements, and explaining why whatever just happened was a victory for the American people.
Surely, they said, Trump would want stability. Surely he would want a reliable Republican vote in the Senate. Surely he would want the candidate who looks like the sort of man who owns several pairs of reading glasses and uses all of them.
Therefore, the endorsement would come.
Except Donald Trump has many political qualities. Predictability is not among them.
The other candidate in the race is Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and a man who approaches controversy the way a Labrador approaches tennis balls. He has had investigations, lawsuits, headlines, and a political life that resembles a demolition derby conducted entirely in courtrooms.
The Washington view of Paxton is simple: too messy, too risky, too unpredictable.
Which is precisely the sort of résumé that tends to do surprisingly well in Republican primaries these days.
Trump knows this. Trump understands the modern Republican electorate in a way that terrifies consultants who bill by the hour.
So instead of rushing to endorse Cornyn the way the smart set predicted, Trump has done something much more unsettling to them.
He has waited.
And waiting, in politics, is information.
If Trump were eager to rescue Cornyn, he would have already done it. Trump is not known for subtlety when he wants someone to win. When he decides to swing the hammer, the hammer tends to swing immediately and with the force of a bowling ball dropped from a fifth-floor balcony.
Instead we have silence.
This has produced three possible explanations.
The first is the simplest. Trump may simply not like John Cornyn very much. Cornyn has criticized Trump in the past. He supported bipartisan gun legislation that annoyed the Republican base. At one point Trump even called him a “RINO,” which in modern Republican politics is less an insult than a warning label.
The second explanation is that Trump understands the political terrain in Texas better than the consultants do. Paxton has deep support among the MAGA grassroots. Cornyn has strong support among the type of Republicans who subscribe to policy newsletters and believe the Senate should function as a deliberative body.
Trump’s voters tend not to subscribe to policy newsletters.
Endorsing Cornyn would place Trump on the side of the Republican establishment against a candidate who is wildly popular with the party’s populist wing. That is a complicated place for Trump to stand.
The third explanation is the most entertaining and therefore the most plausible.
Trump enjoys leverage.
By withholding an endorsement, he keeps both candidates dancing for his approval. Cornyn cannot assume he has the president’s support. Paxton cannot claim it either. Both must continue making their case. Both must continue flattering Trump, praising Trump, and possibly offering Trump the sort of political concessions that Washington insiders politely refer to as “coordination.”
Meanwhile the consultants in Washington are left doing what consultants hate most.
They are guessing.
This is uncomfortable because the consultants had already written the script for this race. Cornyn would consolidate the establishment. Trump would endorse him. Paxton would fade away. The party would unite. Everyone would congratulate themselves for their strategic brilliance and go back to arguing about polling cross-tabs.
Instead the script has been misplaced.
And so the smart set is left confronting the uncomfortable possibility that they have once again misunderstood the political environment they claim to manage.
It would not be the first time.
For the better part of a decade, the political experts of Washington have been explaining Donald Trump to the American people with the confidence of medieval doctors diagnosing plague. They have theories, charts, and an impressive vocabulary of political science terminology.
They are just frequently wrong.
Which brings us back to the missing endorsement.
Maybe Trump will endorse Cornyn tomorrow. Maybe he will endorse Paxton. Maybe he will wait another week and enjoy the spectacle.
But one thing already seems clear.
The people who were absolutely certain they knew what Trump would do are now absolutely certain they have no idea what he is going to do.
And if recent history is any guide, that probably means Trump is exactly where he wants to be.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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