OPINION

Forecasts for the Weeks of January 5 and 12

Peter Morici
Peter Morici  |  Jan 05, 2015
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of January 5
January 5
Auto Sales* - December 17.11M 17.20 16.9
Car Sales 8.08 8.18
Truck Sales 9.03 9.03
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
January 6
PMI Services Index - December
ISM Services - December 58.0 59.3 58.2
ISM Prices 54.5 54.5
ISM Business Activity 63.5 64.4
Factory Orders - November -0.3% -0.7 -0.5
Durable Goods Orders -0.7 -0.7
January 7
ADP Employment - December 205K 208 225
International Trade - November -$41.0B 43.4 -42.0
January 8
Initial Unemployment Claims 288K 298 290
Consumer Credit - November $15.0B 13.2 15.0
January 9
Nonfarm Payrolls - December 215K 321 240
Private 205 314 235
Manufacturing 10 28 15
Unemployment 5.8% 5.8 5.7
Average Workweek 34.5HR 0.4 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% 34.6 34.6
Wholesale Inventories - November 0.2% 0.4 0.3
Wholesale Sales 0.1 0.2
Week of January 12
January 13
Treasury Budget - December $24B -56.8 23.0
January 14
Export Prices - December -0.5% -1.0
Import Prices_ December -2.5 -1.5
Retail Sales - December 0.1% 1.0 0.1
Retail Sales, ex autos 0.1 0.8 0.2
Business Inventories - November 0.2% 0.2 0.2
January 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January 5.5 -3.58 4.5
Philadelphia Fed Index 20.0 24.5 20.0
Producer Price Index - December -0.3% -0.2% -0.3
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) 0.1 0.0 0.1
January 16
Industrial Production - December 0.1% 1.3 0.1
Capacity Utilization 80.0 80.1 80.0
Consumer Price Index - December -0.3% -0.3 -0.3
Core CPI 0.1 0.1 0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p) 93.6 93.6
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.