Forecasts for the Weeks of October 6 and 13

Peter Morici
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Posted: Oct 05, 2014 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of October 6
October 7
JOLTS - August 4.700M 4.673 4.710
Consumer Credit - August $21.0B 26.0 20.0
October 9
Initial Unemployment Claims 300K 287 293
Wholesale Inventories - August 0.3% 0.1 0.3
Wholesale Sales
October 10
Export Prices -September -0.1% -0.5 -0.1
Import Prices -0.9 -0.9 -0.8
Import Prices, ex-Energy 0.0
Treasury Budget - September $82.0B -128.7 72.0
Week of October 13
October 15
Producer Price Index - September 0.0% 0.0 -0.2
PPI Core 0.1 0.2 0.0
Energy
Retail Sales - September 0.0% 0.6 -0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.2 0.3 0.2
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 20.5 27.54 21.5
Business Inventories - August 0.4% 0.4 0.4
October 16
Industrial Production - August 0.4% -0.1 0.3
Capacity Utilization 79.1 78.8 78.9
Philadelphia Fed Survey 20.5 22.5 19.5
NAHB Index 59 59 59
October 17
Housing Starts - September 1.018M 0.956 1.016
Building Permits 1.035 0.998 1.023
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p) 84.6 84.6 84.2
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.