Forecasts for the Weeks of September 29 and October 6

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Sep 29, 2014 12:01 AM

Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of September 29
September 29
Personal Income - August 0.4% 0.2 0.3
Personal Spending 0.5 -0.1 0.5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 11.0 7.1 10.3
Pending Home Sale Index - Aug 105.5 105.9 106.6
September 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index - July
Twenty City M/M 1.3% 1.0 1.1
Twenty City M/M - SA 0.2 -0.2 0.3
Twenty City Y/Y 7.5 8.1 7.5
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA
Chicago PMI - September 60.0 64.3 62.0
Consumer Confidence - September 92.0 92.4 92.5
October 1
Auto Sales* - September 17.10M 17.53 16.80
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
ADP Employment Report - September 200K 204 200
PMI Manufacturing Index 57.9 57.9 58.0
ISM (Mfg) - Sept 58.3 59.0 58.0
ISM Prices 58.0 58.0 57.0
Construction Spending - August 0.3% 1.8 0.5
October 2
Initial Unemployment Claims 300K 298 297
Factory Orders - August -9.6% 10.5 -9.3
Durable Goods Orders -18.2 22.6
Nondurable Goods Orders 0.3 -0.9
October 3
Nonfarm Payrolls - September 205K 142 215
Private 200 134 215
Manufacturing 6 0 12
Unemployment 6.1% 6.1 6.1
Average Workweek 34.5HR 34.5 34.5
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.2 0.2
International Trade - August -$40.5B -40.5 -40.6
ISM Services - September 58.2 59.6 58.8
ISM Prices 57.7 57.7
ISM Business Activity 63.2 65.0 63.4
Week of October 6
October 7
Consumer Credit - August $21.0B 26.0 20.0
October 9
Wholesale Inventories - August 0.4% 0.1 0.3
Wholesale Sales
October 10
Export Prices -September 0.0% -0.5 -0.1
Import Prices -0.8 -0.9 -0.5
Import Prices, ex-Energy 0.0
Treasury Budget - September 70.4 -128.7
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.