College students are being murdered while out for a run, NYPD officers brutally attacked in the streets, and daily video releases of untold masses of military-aged men freely crossing our southern border. That is the current state of the American immigration system. With eight months till Election Day, the impacts of the Biden Administration’s complete failure at border enforcement will now be the deciding issue for voters come November.
As is the case with most elections, voters are more concerned with domestic issues than foreign affairs. While the mess at the border originates from abroad, voters very much see it as a domestic crisis because they see and feel the negative impacts of it in their communities.
While inflation dominated much of the discourse in 2023, in October, we began to see the issue of illegal immigration spike, not just amongst Republicans but Independents and Democrats alike. As the new year began, a slew of Democrat elected officials going on the record to complain about the havoc migrants are wreaking on their cities and states helped propel the issue to center stage.
By January, the issue shot up six points and another four points in February. That is 10 points in two months. A quarter of Americans now say illegal immigration is their top concern.
This is the backdrop to America’s longest-running mess: the machinations of our nation's capital. We can leave it to the pundits to determine whether the recent attempt in Congress to pass a border security package was the right or wrong move, but it is clear none of it resonates with what voters are experiencing in their daily lives. None of it addresses what voters see as an absolute imperative of their government.
The idea that neither party wants action on this issue because it serves their political interests ahead of an election that will come down to about 50,000 voters across five statesis not hard to imagine, but it is a far cry from how Americans expect this issue to be addressed.
The American people are clear about their stance on illegal immigration and border security, and the data backs it up. A quarter (25%) now say all immigration should be completely frozen until the border crisis is resolved.
Two-thirds of voters (65%) support deporting illegal immigrants who have come into America illegally while just 26 percent oppose. Accentuating just how much of an election issue this will be, 70 percent of Independents and even a majority of Democrats support that approach. Additionally, 57 percent believe the government should detain and deport illegal immigrants instead of letting them go free inside our border – 58 percent of Independent voters agree with that as well.
Perhaps the most interesting data point was not even part of the national conversation about the border crisis just months ago. A resounding 64 percent said they support temporarily militarizing the southern border to relieve Border Patrol agents and stop the flow of illegal immigrants. Only 26% opposed militarization.
Data from key states with large Hispanic populations drives the point home further. Almost two-thirds (61%) of Hispanics said the U.S. should have strong enforcement of immigration laws and direct more resources to securing the border. This is how our fellow Americans think about this issue but it’s equally interesting to highlight that a surprising 18 percent of Democrats believe there should be no border at all. Commonsense would suggest that if those voters believe there should be no wall, then presumably, they don’t support any of the above actions, which a majority of Americans support. Who are these people?
This issue isn’t going anywhere unless Biden stumbles into a foreign entanglement or some unforeseen October surprise jolts voters’ attention away from the border. The impacts are so real, and the headlines are so inescapable that voters, especially swing voters in battleground states, will decide their votes on it.
The good news for Republicans is they are still trusted more (48%) by voters on border security than Democrats (32%), including by 42 percent of Independents. This number only improves as voters continue to learn about the record monthly border crossings allowed under Biden.
Republicans have to seize this moment. Our nation is at a crossroads to stop the invasion at our southern border, and voters want action and believe that Republicans are the party best suited to do so. Will our leaders answer this call?
Mitch Brown is a pollster and Director of Political Strategy at Cygnal, the fastest growing and most accurate GOP polling firm.
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