There is a Perfect Storm of epochal proportions on the horizon for the Democrat Party, and there will be no escaping its impact. The forces set in motion by seven years of Bush Derangement Syndrome and this primary season will be impossible to mitigate or deflect. There is a Democrat train wreck coming and even Superman couldn’t stop this locomotive.
And I predicted it all back in November of 2006.
I am no palm reader or Tarot card master, no crystal ball wrangler, no political clairvoyant, but I am cognizant of historical factors that will continue to influence the primaries for the Democrats and fracture their party into small pieces, and there is little they can do about it.
Worse, the factors I relied on in 2006 to make my predictions have only moved in more ominous directions for the Dems. The fissures have become deeper. The race has become tighter. And with the Dem candidates polling well against McCain, the stakes have become higher. The dogfight that will be the Dem nominating process this summer will collapse the party like a black hole on steroids.
To review, from MySandmen, November 6, 2006
“Mark your calendar…you read it here first…the 2008 Democrat National Convention is going to make the 1968 Chicago Democrat National Convention look like a play date for snobby, elite toddlers. I think Denver and NYC should abandon their bids, and that this convention should be held where the least property damage could be done…maybe…in the middle of Death Valley, California.”
“Dean and the Kos Kidz. The mainstream party will never be able to meet the exceedingly high expectations from the far left. While their influence in 2004 is well documented, they reached their high-water mark with Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Dem primary earlier in the year.”
“African-Americans will call in their marker on the Dems. …Long a mainstay of support for the floundering Dems, blacks are waking up to the fact that the Dems have been stringing them along for years.”
“If no candidate can run the table…look for a bitter and acrimonious Convention, at which, both the Kos Kidz and the African-American caucuses, increase in importance, and further divide a fissured party. It won’t be pretty amongst the frustrated rank-and-file…locked out of the smoky backrooms, and being kept out of the Convention site.”
“Iraq. By far the single issue that will set the tone for the Convention. Like Vietnam, it is already causing more gyrations in the Dem party than a basket full of snakes at a limbo party. … So, in the end, Iraq will cause the Democrat Party much more consternation than it will the Republicans, because in 2008…someone, (all the candidates anyway) in the Democrat Party, will finally have to offer a specific proposal for Iraq. And that one fact will begin a fissuring of the party that will make a gamma-ray burst seem like a single firecracker during a Honolulu New Year’s Eve.”
“I am not advocating civil disruption, nor do I wish it on the potential host cities, but mark my words…the 2008 Convention will be a calamitous event that will rival 1968 in its infamy. A conflagration of events is beginning to coalesce into an unstoppable force…a force that works against a peaceful process that produces a viable Presidential candidate, and sets the stage for an explosive release of frustration that will likely be mismanaged into chaos by the DNC leadership.”
“Good luck keeping a net on this one.”
After the November 2006 elections I followed up with the following on November 8, 2006,
“The Republicans in the House and Senate have squandered their many opportunities because of gutlessness, pandering, and 2008 Presidential aspirations of their own. But, that does not mean all is lost...over the course of the next two years, the Dems will engage themselves in a series of events that will culminate in a DNC National Convention that will make a Mike Tyson fight look like a patty cake session between a couple of snobbish playdaters. Last night's win for the Dems, only revs the engine.
Hillary the self-appointed frontrunner for 2008...from RCP.
"Caution has served Clinton well in the Senate. There, she has listened to the wisdom of Robert Byrd, the longest serving member, who gave her his standard nose-to-the-grindstone tutorial and beamed with avuncular pride as she took it to heart and grandstanded not. On the other hand, she has led not, either. If she is a party leader, it is on the basis of who she is and not what she has done. She has risked little. " (My emphasis)
It is doubtful that her risk aversion has gone un-noticed from within the party, and it is not likely to be rewarded with a yellow-brick road to Denver or NYC.”
“Kos and his crowd are not going to go quietly into the night. Check this comment stream from the Kos Kidz...
"No question about it. We're mandated all to heck."
"Americans last night showed they despise conservatism. And they showed they want a better way - a way that absolutely, without any doubt, includes liberalism."
"Who the hell is listening at this point? They are irrelevant. It's full speed AHEAD time!"
..."We're mandated all to heck"...they are not just talking about the left...they are talking about the left and themselves...the far left. And I am glad that I don't have to break the news to them that the Party is now going to attempt to move to the right a bit. They won't be having any part of that...they believe the mandate is theirs...not just for moderate Dems.”
“The Michael Steele effect...African-American candidates are not going to be dictated to by the Dem party any longer. Had the Dems had a true partnership with their African-American constituents, they could have put forward a black candidate in MD, and had another black Senator. Frustration with the Dem Party, by the black rank-and-file spilled over when Steele received significant support from black political leaders. Had the Dems put up a black candidate, he likely would have won...but as usual, the African-American caucus is carrying their water, and getting scraps in return. They (blacks) will continue to (have to) fight for a return on their 50 year investment.”
And I continued with the following on November 9, 2006,
“They will be looking for a white knight... a crusader...to lift them above the malaise and toward the promises of liberalism...economic equality, true "social" security through governmental care and programmatics, and into the Great Society where the simple "will" to get along ensures peace, and all act toward the common good, and evil is vanquished by the light of this Great Society.
They will, of course, be disappointed in the machinations of the Dem Party, and frustrated when the quadrennial appearance of their savior is thwarted by the rigidity of the Party, and that they will be going forward with a mediocre candidate that is incapable of meeting the comparisons to St. John and St. Bobby. They will be angry, and they will not go quietly into the night.”
As will be the case if the Clintons and their megalomaniacal machine rely on super-delegates to deny charismatic Obama the nomination.
“The convention floor will be home to more "moves" than the NBA All-Star game.”
And finally on November 15, 2006, my final Karnacian prediction,
“So, the forces that will determine whether the Dem National Convention will be collegial or not, are in place...and it is looking like the extreme left will be pulling with all its might, the moderates will become frustrated, the MSM will try to influence with their slanted pulpit, and the war in Iraq...the war against terrorism...will still be a factor, so I come to the same conclusion...the Dean's and Pelosi's, backed by the Kos Kids, fueled by the even farther left anti-war crowd, will be discouraged by the centrist Dems who will move to the middle, and the vocal support they (moderate Dems) will get from the MSM...this friction will cause the Dem Convention to be a raucous and memorable affair.
Denver...it is not too late to withdraw your bid.” On second thought, maybe it is.
With Obama and Clinton in a tight race, and McCain looking beatable, with the Berkley fever still untreated among the far-lefties, with blacks ready to call in their markers, and the Clintonian Presidential Corporation in no mood to file for Chapter 11…this will go to the Convention. And when the brokering is fumbled by Howard Dean, look for all parties to meet in the street. This will be a convention for the ages.
I stand by my predictions.