I'm up in the polls less than 70 days out from Election Day. I got this thing sewn up. Break out the lemonade, right? I would say champagne, but Biden is a teetotaler. I honestly think that the Biden team thought he could remain in the basement, refuse the debates, and then coast to Election Day. Given the shock to the system liberal America got in 2016, I don't get why these clowns thought that was a good idea.
The Democratic National Convention was a disaster. It was one long, insufferable zoom call. The DNC had to duplicate people just to fill up the virtual audience board that they had, there was no message, and if there was one, "I'm pissed, and it's Trump's fault" isn't a winner. This party used to be aces at campaigning and winning elections. Under Obama, their operatives were pretty damn good. Now, it's—I don't know—rolling with the C-squad here.
Republicans learned this lesson first in the primaries. Never count out Trump—ever. This goes double when he's down. He's defied the odds before and he's doing it again. I'm sure the Biden camp knows that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would win re-election. That's why he's out of the basement. They smoked him out. For a week, the Trump campaign showed a message of hope, patriotism, the possibilities that still rest within this great nation, and the chaos the Democrats want you to ignore. Yes, he mentioned the leftist mayhem engulfing our cities. The Republican National Convention was the reset point. Yes, the riots are starting to impact the polling, as evidenced by CNN's Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon's freak-out during the convention. Suburban voters are starting to drift toward Trump. In Kenosha, where the mayhem reached a fever pitch during the convention, local Democrats are worried its impacting how the state will go in November.
We got "Trumpmentum" from the GOP convention. Trump leads Joe by ten points with Independents. That's the election right there. There's even been an uptick in support among Black and Hispanic voters as well for Trump. On that front, Trump doesn't have to win that voter bloc but get double-digit support among Black voters, which I think he can this cycle, and there could be trouble; Trump got nine percent of Black voter support in 2016.
1). BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds:— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 30, 2020
National Popular Vote:
Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump got 8 percent of black vote in 2016. I’ve been predicting 11-13 percent in 2020. I’m thinking he could get 14-16 percent now.— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 28, 2020
1) IMO, the straightest path to 270 EVs for Trump (Core 3 + 1)* (Read from bottom-up):— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 29, 2020
"+ 1": MN (10); WI 10; MI 16; PA (20)
ELECTORAL VICTORY (270)
"Core 3": NC, FL, AZ (55) thus 260 EVs
2016 Trump states very likely re-won (205)
Florida is likely going to count its votes fast on Nov 3... Models I look at suggest Biden's chance of winning the prez if he wins FL is ~95%. It drops below 50% if he loses FL.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 29, 2020
It may be hard for Democrats to swallow this, but, like, we're patriots. Even moderate voters love America, its founding values, and do not like the rioting. They especially don't like it when it spills into their neighborhoods. For voters in the areas that are quasi-war zones, they see Democratic mayors and leaders do next to nothing to curb the mayhem and bring about law and order. Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler had the stones to send one of the most ridiculous letters to the president, demanding he stay away after offering federal help. Soon afterward, leftists stormed his apartment complex and refused to leave until he resigned and set into motion plans to defund the police by 2022 or something. Also, there were reports that an Antifa member allegedly executed a Trump supporter. This is your fault, Ted. You let this go on for weeks—and that goes the same for every Democrat-run city that is tolerating this violence in order to impact the election.
A Morning Consult poll saw Trump cut into Biden's national lead by half. Even in some of the liberal polls where Biden is still up, the lead has been dramatically reduced. President Trump is within striking distance. In battleground states, Trump is also surging. If Trump wins Florida again, Biden's chances of winning this election dip below 50 percent. If Trump wins Minnesota, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona, he could lose Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan…and still win the presidency. And Trump almost won Minnesota last year. There's a good chance he can win it this cycle. Did you see the scores of Democratic mayors in the state who have broken ranks to back him? Also, if you watched the end of the RNC on C-SPAN, it was a straight week of Democrats calling in to voice their support for Trump, whilst trashing their former party for being too radical and rudderless. They also like references to God during the convention. These aren't hardcore conservatives, by the way. A great many of these folks were lifelong Democrats with long family histories with the Democratic Party. Not anymore. Some were former Hillary supporters who said they needed a change in 2020 and were sick of the crime. The sleepers are waking up, folks.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin but picks up Minnesota, (and all other states stay the same as 2016) he still hits 270 electoral votes. https://t.co/Ra83maIlzR— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 24, 2020
Bidens campaign must be panicking if there having the biggest ad buy in Virginia— Real American Politics (@RealAPolitics) August 28, 2020
The point is that Biden has been smoked out. Trump dropped a bunker buster on his safe zone. So, Biden decides to drop by Pittsburgh and deliver a speech, which pretty much was a panicked "forget what you saw last week" moment for the campaign. Also, does anyone think the riots that occurred all summer were due to Trump supporters? No. Liberal America, we have your number, we have the receipts, and we have videos that will deliver every narrative you dole out on this front a face-full of buckshot.
Biden got 0 bounce from the #DemConvention.— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 29, 2020
Why? His policies – he refuses to talk specifics out of fear he'll offend the center or left. That gives Trump the opportunity to attack and define.
If Biden remains silent, he will keep losing support.https://t.co/ECZXJOyJzM
You're going to have to work with what you have got, and that's Joe Biden. A man who has yet to prove he can win a national election. A man who won the nomination because he got lucky when the sea of no-names he ran against couldn't hack it, but not after they all took a bite out of him in the debate stage. Have we forgotten that his running mate, Kamala Harris, pretty much called him a racist?
This is the turnaround we needed. Trump is on the offensive, and while "sleepy Joe" isn't as catchy or effective as "crooked Hillary," the hordes of left-wingers trying to foster a Marxist revolution in the streets of America is sending voters to Trump. It's shown that the Democratic Party cannot govern, and no one can show that better at the top of the ticket than Joe Biden—when he remembers that he's running for president and not the Senate.