I have been arguing for months that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for President next year. I’ve based that, to a great extent, on historical precedent: it hasn’t been since the 1880s that a political party has refused to renominate a sitting President who wanted to run again. LBJ declined to run in 1968, but if the sitting President wanted a second term in office, no matter how inept he had been (read: Jimmy Carter), he got the party’s nomination. Hence, based on that precedent, I have argued that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
But, candidly, history can only tell us what HAS happened; it cannot tell us what WILL happen. It usually points us in the right direction, but not absolutely. A sitting President (in this case, Biden) has tremendous power, especially within his own party. How many thousands of people—bureaucrats, party officials, etc.—owe their current, mostly useless, but lucrative, cushy positions to Biden? They aren’t going to forsake him unless he is in a pine box, and maybe not even then. That “party machine” is highly formidable and influential, and it is Biden’s greatest single asset if he wants the nomination. And he still might get it, regardless of currently floating rumors.
But I’m suggesting here that the Democrats will dump Biden for one reason—when it comes to elections, Democrats are not stupid. They are corrupt, evil, wicked, perverted, venal, thieves, liars, and cheats—but they are NOT stupid. They know how to win. Republicans, both in the party “machine” and in the rank and file, are largely clueless about how to gain and then hold political power. Power is the only reason Democrats live. To have it, to hold it, to keep it, and to exercise it over you. It is their raison d'être.
Biden has been an extremely incompetent President. Most Americans realize this. Now the news has come out that America’s poverty rate has increased for the first time in 13 years. “Bidenomics” isn’t working (no surprise). Nothing that man has done has succeeded, mainly because Leftist policies inherently fail. But the Democrats don’t care about that; the well-being of the American people is utterly immaterial to them. As one Muslim ruler of India once said, “The Hindus will never become submissive and obedient until they are reduced to poverty.” If that doesn’t describe what the Democrats are trying to do to Americans, then nothing does.
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But they aren’t there yet; to put America in that position, they must keep power. Biden is old, he is decrepit, his deterioration is rapid, increasing, and obvious, and his poll numbers are extremely low. He is, if not hated, then at least very unpopular among most Americans. Even most Democrats have expressed a desire to have another candidate next year. Some polls show that Trump might defeat Biden in a head-to-head rematch. And while I’m not convinced current polls are accurate, Democrats see them, and a Trump Presidency is Armageddon, the end of the world, to those people. They cannot abide a second Trump term. That MUST be avoided at all costs. And if polls show Trump might beat Biden, then Biden has got to go. Period.
Trump, of course, is hated, literally hated, by huge numbers of Americans. Millions will not vote for him for any reason. Many who recognize Biden’s decline and incompetence will still opt for Joe if Trump is the Republican nominee. But, while Trump does have that Mount Everest of hatred against him and isn’t particularly loved by anybody except his intensely devoted, but decidedly minority, following, many Americans will vote for their pantries, paychecks, and gas tanks first. And if they remember that things WERE much better under Trump than Biden, then—if those two are the choices next year—they might opt for Trump. That is Mr. Trump’s best chance, and it isn’t insignificant.
The Dems won’t tolerate that. They will definitely drop Biden if they fear defeat. A candidate who is much more likable and personable will be selected. The consummate non-Biden, anti-Trump. And if they can find such a candidate, they will win the Presidency again next year. It is hard to see Trump beating anybody but Biden, and it isn’t sure that he can even do that. But he will lose against any semi-respectable, semi-likeable Democrat.
The problem for Democrats is, are there any? Kamala? Maybe the black vote is critical, but she is less popular than Biden. Gavin Newsom will surely run, even though he says now he won’t. But will Americans accept the whole nation becoming San Francisco? Democrats will, but Newsom is risky, too. Others will jump in (Buttigieg? Pocahontas?) and someone will finally rise to the top. Ted Cruz recently suggested that Michelle Obama might be “parachuted” in at the August convention. I also mentioned her a few months ago, and it wasn’t original to me. I’ve heard everybody but Michelle say she isn’t interested, but she would be, from the Democrats’ perspective, the ideal candidate. Wife of their most popular politician, no real negatives. Barack already runs things, and everybody knows it. She has the benefit of a nice smile and zillions of zombie Americans voting. But she may say “absolutely no.” So, that leaves the door open. Except for Michelle, the Dems don’t really have any good options. Biden has that going for him, too.
Wait until Trump secures the Republican nomination. Then dump Biden and convince Michelle. That’s my plan if I were in Democratic leadership. No way Trump beats her. He couldn’t even get more popular votes than Hillary. Guaranteed Democratic victory.
Democrats have many reasons to ditch Biden, but they are mainly afraid he might lose to Trump next year. And, to Democrats, a nuclear war wouldn’t be as devastating as that.
“Wisdom from Our Founders”—new oral podcast series (for paid subscribers) on my substack, mklewis929.substack.com. Listen to my current series on the Declaration of Independence. Sign up for free. Read my western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma all available on Amazon. Follow me on Twitter: @thailandmkl. And rumble: lewandcou
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