Opinion

The Next Three Weeks

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Posted: Oct 11, 2020 12:01 AM
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The Next Three Weeks

Source: AP Photo/Jeff Swinger

I continue to maintain that a weak Joe Biden cannot beat a muscular Donald Trump. Only Trump can beat Trump. And some days he seems to be doing a pretty good job of it. Biden is as weak as Hillary was. It’s not just about his age or acuity. He is weak on policy. His campaign strategy is eerily similar to hers. Let’s call him Hide’n Biden. His handlers clearly believe their chances are better with their candidate locked in the basement, avoiding embarrassing gaffs. It may be working. If the election were held today, it could well tip to Biden. 

But the election is not today. 

Three weeks is a long time to run out the clock. There are a number of things on the horizon. Most of which do not auger well for Team Biden. Debates or lack thereof are seldom declarative. Events are. 

The ongoing investigations of the Russia collusion coup and the Biden blackmailing of Ukraine have been largely ignored by the hopelessly corrupt media. With the declassification of more unredacted documents and the investigations by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), these matters will be harder to ignore. Remember, facts are still stubborn things. 

The hearings and confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett will also affect voters' opinions of the two sides. She is a very sympathetic figure. Personal attacks against her will surely backfire. Dems have to pull out all of the stops to placate their base. Let them attack her for her Catholic faith, insulting millions of Catholic voters just before the election. It won’t end well for them. Ugly counter-demonstrations will only remind voters of weak Democratic responses to earlier riots. Her nomination was a stroke of genius. 

The Biden-Harris refusals to answer basic questions on things like court-packing, fracking, China, Hunter’s business deals and the effects on the middle class of repealing the Trump tax cuts are already wearing thin. It is arrogance writ large and they know it. Even some of their supporters are feeling a bit anxious. 

Americans are eager to get back to something that looks more like normal. They are weary of the lockdowns and the nanny state orders. Blaming Trump for the Wuhan virus may have worked before the president’s remarkable recovery. They are seeing the enormous progress being made on treatments and vaccines, all thanks to the administration’s Project Warp Speed. 

Finally, a few words about polling. The most difficult part of polling is predicting who will actually cast ballots. The samples on many of these polls are heavily skewed with Democrat voters. Most of the pollsters seem to be repeating the same mistakes they made four years ago. They ignore the new voters that Trump is attracting. They also ignore the huge enthusiasm gap which is somewhere between 22-30 percent. In Duluth just a few weeks ago a Biden rally drew only 48 sorry souls. Two days later in the same city, Trump drew over 20,000. Similar examples can be seen around the country. Like last time, the media does its best to ignore all of this. But in the end, it’s there for all to see. 

Just a guess, but I suspect Trump voters may be much more likely to stand in long lines on Election Day.  

Let me encourage everyone to read Matt Vespa’s excellent column discussing the shy Trump voter being bigger this year.

It is hard to argue with the postulates or conclusions. The piece is underpinned with compelling data. Pollster Patrick Basham’s conclusion that one million fewer younger voters will show up and vote this year makes perfect sense. There is little enthusiasm for their ticket. The RNC announced that 60 percent who attended the Trump rally in Duluth were not Republicans. Trump is growing and transforming the party in ways that pollsters simply cannot accommodate in their samples. 

Much can change in the next three weeks. Much is at stake. Self-government isn’t easy. It’s not a spectator sport. Everyone reading this can help affect the outcome. The president is all in. He’s doing his part. Let’s do ours. 

Keep the Faith. 

Gil Gutknecht served six terms in both the Minnesota and the U.S. House of Representatives.