WASHINGTON -- It is slowly becoming ever clearer whom exactly the Democrats are zeroing in on as their key voting bloc for 2020. It is not the youth vote, contrary to the received opinion. The youth vote is always in danger of oversleeping, and by 4 p.m., most are in danger of being lured to happy hour. It would be just like the Trump team to lure the kids, especially the college kids, to the bars rather than allow them to do their civic duty and vote Democratic -- or, in some cases, vote communist. The Democrats are not going to waste their time on such unreliable voters.
Nor is the union vote likely to be targeted by the Democrats. The union vote is nowadays relatively small -- and getting smaller all the time, thanks to the Trump economy. Nor is it the angry women's vote being targeted by the Democrats. After all, the angry women are, frankly, just too irritable to be relied upon to show up at the polls. They will probably vote Democratic in small numbers, but many might very well stay home on Election Day or have automobile accidents on their way to the voting booth.
Some observers think the Democrats will settle on the suburban vote as their key bloc, but when the suburbanites have given careful thought to their 401(k)s and other economic considerations, they will be torn. Yes, yes, I know the suburban vote is worried about Donald Trump's use of curse words, but my guess is the foulmouthed Democrats, with their weakness for tax increases, won't waste much time or money trying to lure the suburban vote. As James Carville once said, "It's the economy, stupid."
So whom are Democrats going to focus on? In 2020, what voting group will form the most stable, reliable bloc for them? I think they will go with the core voters they have gone with for the last 20 years. They won the election for the Democrats in 2008 and again in 2012. The Democrats will go for what I have been calling the moron vote -- that is, the voters who believe things that are clearly unbelievable to normal citizens. In fact, I would say they believe in things that more and more Americans believe are clearly preposterous.
For instance, the typical moron voter believes America is a shockingly racist country. The Morons believe this despite the obvious fact that increasing numbers of black people are clearly admired: admired as athletes, admired as entertainers, admired as personalities and spokespersons for various admirable causes. They are business leaders, political leaders and educators. They play active roles everywhere except in the Ku Klux Klan and among white supremacist groups -- which, by the way, are not all that significant in America today, unless you are a moron.
Actually, a black man was elected president in 2008 and reelected in 2012. Blacks figure prominently in advertisements on television and radio. In fact, America is pretty much an integrated society, but Democrats deny it. They are appealing to the moron vote, which is why I think they will rely on these ignoramuses again in 2020.
They also believe that America is anti-immigrant, despite the fact that some 20 million immigrants have peacefully settled in America over the past 25 or so years. Over those years, there has sprung up no nativist political party, as in the 19th century. There is little sentiment against immigrants. Most Americans -- even Americans from immigrant stock -- agree that immigrants should abide by our immigration laws.
People who ride around town in their Priuses or Volvos, their bumpers cluttered with stickers like "Hate Is Not Welcome Here," "Hate Is Not A Family Value" or, my favorite, "Humanity Has No Borders" are likely to cast their vote with the morons. It's just a matter of time before they add a "Vote Democrat" sticker to their bumper's collection. Better yet, how about "Vote Socialist"?
Yet, are there enough of them? Well, I have my doubts. Trump has roused an astounding number of Republicans and independents. He even has the support of some self-respecting Democrats. Moreover, my agents across America tell me that he continues to attract a growing number of Americans who rarely vote. They are tired of Democrats calling America a racist country, an anti-immigrant country, a militarist country or other anti-American canards.
In the coming presidential election as in the last, I believe the Democrats are going to lose. There just aren't enough morons out there.
R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr. is founder and editor in chief of The American Spectator. He is a senior fellow at the London Center for Policy Research and the author, most recently, of "The Death of Liberalism," published by Thomas Nelson, Inc.