Think about yesterday morning, when more bad news came out of Boeing (BA), and Wall Street was all pumped up over the scheduled Apple (AAPL) event.
Boeing finished the session +$8.29 or 2.29%, while Apple shares tumbled -$2.31 or 1.21%, after the Street yawned over an array of services, including:
- Credit Card
- Streaming Network
- Arcade Video Game Offerings
Apple caught three major upgrades this month from major firms, perhaps in anticipation of something monumental at the big reveal.
- Needham: Strong Buy from Buy
- (COWN) Cowen & Co.: Initiated with Outperform
- (BAC) Bank of America: Buy from Neutral
Not only did shares of Apple get hit big but shares of all their would-be rivals also surged.
- (NFLX) Netflix: +$5.22
- (AMZN) Amazon: +$9.49
- (ROKU) Roku: +$2.99
Meanwhile, Boeing shares rallied higher after news of China announcing a big Airbus order.
- 290: A320
- 10: A350
Considering President Xi was in France, and made the announcement with President Macron, the number wasn’t that large compared to China’s demand. It turns out it was a de-facto reiteration of plans to keep purchasing from Boeing.
The Message of Investor Sentiment
Last week, right before the downturn, Individual Investor Sentiment (IIS) got more bullish, climbing to 37.3% from 32.4% the prior week. Bearishness dipped to 23.4% from 31.1%. Bullishness was over 41%, coming into the month, so I wouldn’t say investors got it wrong. However, it will be interesting to see if individual bullishness retreats.
The Message of the Session
I was impressed with the strength in Consumer Discretionary names all session long, and the overall resolve of the market not to collapse.
S&P 500 Index | -0.23% |
Communication Services (XLC) | -0.34% |
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.44% |
Consumer Staples (XLP) | +0.27% |
Energy (XLE) | -0.27% |
Financials (XLF) | -0.47% |
Health Care (XLV) | -0.23% |
Industrials (XLI) | +0.08% |
Materials (XLB) | -0.25% |
Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.38% |
Technology (XLK) | -0.76% |
Utilities (XLU) | +0.17% |
Sector Watch
The iShares PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) continues to pull back from a blistering pace with downgrades on two big names in the space. The SOXX Index hit a perfect double top (the most prescient technical bearish indicator). So, now it needs to find support around 126 or 117.
Portfolio Approach
We added a department store on the Afternoon Note. We decreased cash to 5% and increased Consumer Discretionary to a 5 weight. If you are not a current subscriber to our Hotline service, click here to get started today.
Communication Services 1 | Consumer Discretionary 5 | Consumer Staples 1 |
Energy 1 | Financials 1 | Healthcare 2 |
Industrial 3 | Materials 3 | Real Estate 0 |
Technology 2 | Utilities 0 | Cash 1 |
Today’s Session
Market Sees Rate Cut…Is this good news?
I think it’s good the Fed would be willing to cut rates, but I would worry if this was due to a serious issue with a recession, which I don’t see for 2019.
This morning February housing starts came in at annualize rate of 1.16 million, far short of consensus of 1.21 million and down from 1.23 million in January. This reflects the true area of fragility in the US economy that might change with lower rates.
Meanwhile, there has been a complete shift in expectations for Federal Reserve with all measures seeing a rate cut this year. CME group sees range at 200-225 basis points or lower.
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